John Harbaugh opens his Giants tenure against Dallas tonight, with Malik Nabers still questionable despite three full practices during the week Having his best receiver available would make Jaxson Dart’s introduction to a new offense considerably less demanding, and Jay Glazer reports he “thinks” Nabers will play. We await developments there. For the Cowboys, Dallas is ready to roll out a fully-healthy hydra of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, although left guard Tyler Smith’s thumb surgery complicates the pleasant prospect of watching those three pick up where they left off. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Cowboys prediction, preview
Prescott’s arrived at what I believe to be his make-or-break season, in a career that feels like it’s been full of them. Dallas generated +0.12 EPA per pass last season, compared with −0.03 per rush, according to SumerSports. Javonte Williams ran for 1,201 yards, but throwing remained the more productive way to advance the ball. I expect to see a more balanced attack tonight, and for Javonte to have a big game. Last year, though, against Cover 3—which new Giants coordinator Dennard Wilson favored in Tennessee—Prescott completed 105 of 152 passes (69.1%), throwing eight touchdowns against two interceptions. Different defenders will execute Wilson’s calls now, of course. I still like Prescott finding Lamb across the field and Pickens near the boundary before this secondary has an opportunity to close around them.
Making those throws requires cooperation from the line, and Brian Burns collected 16.5 sacks last season for Big Blue. With Abdul Carter threatening the other edge, New York can rush four and leave seven defenders to contest Prescott’s reads. T.J. Bass replaces the injured Tyler Smith at tackle, and he has 10 career starts for Dallas; I like the experience, but don’t whatsoever expect seamless protection. Dallas also scored touchdowns on only 37 of 65 red-zone trips last season (56.9%). Even when Prescott moves the chains, we should allow for Aubrey-bomb field goals. There’s enough evidence of unfinished drives to resist projecting an offensive exhibition, though that’s very well what we may see to kick off Dallas’s much-ballyhooed Super Bowl campaign.
Cowboys vs. Giants pick, best bet
New York’s ground game faces a more interesting defense than Dallas’s full-season reputation suggests. After Quinnen Williams arrived, the Cowboys allowed the fifth-lowest rushing success rate from Weeks 11-18 and posted the fourth-best stuff rate, per Derek Brown. Cam Skattebo will force some difficult tackles—he averaged 96.3 scrimmage yards across Weeks 2-7—but Dallas has already shown it can stop runners before they reach the secondary. Under new coordinator Christian Parker, the linebackers still must fill their gaps. Quinnen cannot tackle Skattebo and account for Dart keeping the ball himself.
Dart deserves that extra scheming (40.6 rushing yards per start last season). His passing requires more patience: among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he finished 23rd in CPOE and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. I’m reluctant to assume he’ll repeatedly rescue third-and-long possessions with his arm. Nabers could certainly punish that skepticism, especially with Andrew Thomas cleared to protect Dart’s blind side. A limited Nabers would leave more responsibility with tight end Isaiah Likely underneath, where completions may require another successful play to produce a first down. It may be too much for the Giants in their current state.
I’ll take Dallas -3 (-112), with the Cowboys winning 27-20.
Best bet: Dallas -3 (-112)
Projected score: Dallas 27, New York Giants 20
