Hawaii kept QB Micah Alejado from 2025’s nine-win team, and opened the 2026 campaign with losses to Stanford and UNLV. The second loss is far more catastrophically concerning: the Rainbow Warriors scored only six points at home and allowed five sacks. New Mexico State comes to the island after beating Mercyhurst 51-14 last week. A fine showing, to be sure. But I’m betting more on what Trey Hedden, its new quarterback from Furman, accomplished against Florida State before that. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the New Mexico State Aggies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hawaii vs. NMSU prediction, preview
Hedden threw for 272 yards in that game in Tallahassee, with TK King catching seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. King already had a productive season catching passes here (41 catches, 588 yards in 2025), and his connection with Hedden is something I believe will translate to decent production on the road. Hawaii has allowed 8.19 yards per pass attempt while collecting only two sacks. Hedden should have time to find King beyond his first read.
Halfback James Jones could spare him some of those longer dropbacks. Jones rushed for 137 yards on 19 carries against Mercyhurst. Hawaii has conceded 203 rushing yards per game at 5.0 per carry so far this year. Jones should find enough running room to keep Hedden from repeatedly throwing on third-and-long, and that should lead to sustained NMSU drives.
Hawaii needs its offensive line to step up and protect Alejado for long enough that he can answer the inevitable Aggies scoring. Head coach Timmy Chang rested him for Tuesday practice, and expects him to play, but the blocking concerns run parallel with whether or not his quarterback feels better. Opponents have sacked Hawaii QBs seven times through just two games. This rushed version of Alejado has only averaged just 4.87 yards across 92 attempts. For NMSU’s secondary, Nick Session already has two interceptions. Another hurried throw could end a Hawaii possession before Alejado gets a chance to correct the previous mistake.
NMSU vs. Hawaii pick, best bet
Still, I wouldn’t ask the Aggies’ defense to protect a narrow lead all evening. Opponents have converted 13 of 27 third downs and scored touchdowns on six of eight red-zone visits. Hawaii has converted 43.6% of its own third downs, so the offense has sustained some possessions despite the poor passing numbers. I’d keep handing off to DeVon Rice, who gained 73 yards on 15 carries against UNLV, and make New Mexico State stop him before putting everything on Alejado’s banged-up arm.
I’m taking New Mexico State +7.5 (-115), and I’ve got Hawaii winning 28-24. Rice should help Hawaii finish more drives, but Hedden and King have already run successful passing games against tougher defenses. The Aggies should be able to go score-for-score with Hawaii deep into into the fourth quarter and keep the margin inside a touchdown.
Best bet: New Mexico State +7.5 (-115)
Projected score: Hawaii 28, New Mexico State 24
Best Bet: NMSU +7.5 (-115) at Hawaii
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
