We’ve got a three-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action. Afternoon baseball!
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $60K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners ($8,800) — Jacob deGrom has been much better at home than on the road, posting a 2.38 and a 4.20 FIP, respectively. His strikeout rate is 11.6 percentage points higher, while his HR/9 is also lower at home. DeGrom has cleared 20 FPTS in four of his last seven games. The three outliers were all on the road. This doesn’t mean deGrom hasn’t had success on the road this season; he had four road starts with over 20 FPTS earlier in the year, including a high of 31.4 FPTS against the Guardians. While the Mariners aren’t as inept on offense as Cleveland, Seattle ranks fourth in strikeouts, 25th in ISO and 29th in wOBA at home. Zack Wheeler has been great the last two starts, but I’m concerned the Astros offense could do some damage against him. In addition, he’s $1,200 more expensive, and I think deGrom could come close to Wheeler’s production.
Value
Martin Perez, Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($6,300) — It never makes one jump for joy when clicking on Martin Perez; he’s got a 90 mph fastball and a 7.7% K-BB%. That said, he’s a wily veteran who can eat innings and possibly contribute double-digit FPTS. Tampa Bay is dead-last in strikeouts against left-handed pitching, but we are not looking for Perez to rack up many of those. The Rays are 28th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA and 22nd in wRC+, so we are looking for one of the five-inning, 20-plus FPTS affairs — something he’s done four times this season.
INFIELD
Stud
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves ($4,900) — The aforementioned Perez has been pretty good against righties, allowing only seven home runs in 88.1 innings with a .213/.309/.346 slash. But Yandy Diaz has feasted on left-handed pitching, slugging eight home runs in 175 plate appearances while slashing .299/.371/.500 with a 91.1-mph average exit velocity, a .201 ISO and a 139 wRC+.
Value
Joc Pederson, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners ($3,000) — Speaking of feasting, Joc Pederson has hit 24 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitching. In those matchups, he has posted a .247 ISO and a 132 wRC+. The average exit velocity is 92.2 mph with a 16.2-degree launch angle and an 11.2% barrel rate. Logan Gilbert has allowed an 89.7 mph average exit velocity, a 16.7-degree launch angle, and a 10.3% barrel rate. He has been better against lefties this season, as his FIP is 1.30 points lower and his K-BB% is 6.3 percentage points higher than against righties. That said, he’s also had a problem keeping the ball in the yard at home, as 23 of his 26 home runs allowed have been served up at T-Mobile Park.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros ($6,200) — Kyle Schwarber has 43 home runs, 87 runs, 88 RBIs, and three stolen bases in 623 plate appearances. He has posted a 92.4-mph average exit velocity, a 19.9-degree launch angle, a 16.8% barrel rate, and a 77.2-mph bat speed. Against right-handed pitching, he has mashed 29 home runs with a .294 ISO and a 126 wRC+. Christian Javier is allowing an 89.8-mph average exit velocity with a 23.6-degree launch angle and a 9.4% barrel rate. Against lefties, he has posted a 10.7% K-BB% with a 5.20 xFIP. He is also saddled with a 5.72 FIP at home, where he’s served up seven of his nine home runs allowed.
Value
Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers ($3,400) — Lazaro Montes has only accrued 19 plate appearances this season, but he already has two home runs and six RBIs. The strikeout rate is an absurd 47.4%, but the ISO is .333. He has also posted an 89.2-mph average exit velocity, a 21.3-degree launch angle, a 22.2% barrel rate, and a 75.4-mph bat speed. Twelve of Jacob deGrom’s 19 home runs allowed have come against lefties, while 11 of them have been served up on the road.
