The 2026 NFL season kicked off on Wednesday with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. The season’s first Thursday night matchup will take place in Melbourne, Australia, as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Los Angeles Rams.
Expectations are high for both teams this season, with the 49ers eager for better injury luck while the Rams have catapulted to the Super Bowl favorite following a star-studded offseason.
Looking at the odds, the Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites with -198 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 49ers are +164 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 48.5 points.
While you can find a full game preview and plenty more coverage on DraftKings Network, here are my top three player props for the first-ever regular-season NFL game in the Land Down Under.
49ers vs. Rams NFL Player Prop Bets
Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-113)
There will be a time when 38-year-old Matthew Stafford slows down. But coming off an MVP season last year, with a star-studded group of pass catchers, and facing a 49ers defense that finished last season ranked 25th in passing yards allowed, don’t expect it to happen this week.
Stafford finished last season with an NFL-best 4,707 passing yards, or 276.9 passing yards per game. He recorded over 265.5 passing yards in 10 of last year’s regular-season games, as well as 300-plus in two of LA’s three playoff games. Stafford averages 269.9 passing yards per game throughout his career, has recorded over 265.5 average passing yards in 10 seasons in the league, and averages as many as 314.9 per game over a complete season. There is a fair argument that this is the best collection of skill-position players the future Hall of Famer has played with, and each key name returns this season. Concerns were evident for Puka Nacua for the bulk of the offseason, but the two-time Pro Bowler is on track to suit up as planned and has plenty of league-leading metrics from last season to defend of his own. Davante Adams and the impressive tight end group will also play major roles.
These teams faced off twice last season. Stafford lit up the San Francisco secondary for 389 passing yards and three scores in the first matchup in a 26-23 loss. He followed this up with 280 passing yards and four touchdowns en route to a 42-26 win in the second meeting. San Francisco’s defensive outlook should be even more concerning entering this week’s season opener than last year’s unit. They did not add a noteworthy player at defensive end, and injuries have already hurt the roster. Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams are each coming off ACL tears, Fred Warner is bouncing back from a dislocated and fractured ankle, and Bryce Huff retired. Concerns were heightened on the defensive line following the news that Alfred Collins suffered a season-ending pectoral tear. The top stars of the defensive unit are evident, but the depth is scarce.
The Los Angeles Rams are an offensive machine with Stafford at the helm. Expect the attack to keep funneling through the star quarterback, and the 49ers won’t have a defensive unit capable of slowing them down. While that is an ambitious bar for most quarterbacks, it is well within Stafford’s reach. The pressure is on for the Rams this season as they seek to get back to the Super Bowl, and Stafford should respond with a strong offensive outpouring in the season-opener by clearing the 265.5 prop line for the first time this year.
Christian McCaffrey Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
On the other side of this matchup, I am not as optimistic about Christian McCaffrey’s battle with Father Time. The 49ers star passed over the troublesome 30-year age barrier after suiting up for all 17 games last season for the first time since 2022. McCaffrey averaged 70.1 rushing yards per game last season, but was held to under 59.5 rushing yards in nine of his 17 games played. This includes both of last year’s matchups with the Rams. McCaffrey tallied just 57 total rushing yards on 22 carries in the first meeting before being limited to 30 rushing yards on 12 carries in the rematch. The measly 87 yards in two games and 2.55 yards per carry don’t inspire confidence heading into this year.
Since these teams last met, Los Angeles’ defense has only gotten more dynamic. The Rams finished last season ranked 12th in rushing yards allowed and first in rushing touchdowns conceded. They further built on this by trading for two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and convincing Aaron Donald to come out of retirement. Both players have had a case for the best player in the NFL at their peak and still have gas in the tank. Donald did not make the trip to Australia for the Week 1 matchup, though Garrett alone is the caliber of talent that will completely shift a game plan. For a 49ers’ offensive line that has some legitimate questions, this is a concern.
McCaffrey is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL when he is healthy, but the injury risk is real, and at some point the workload will catch up with him. He led the league with 413 touches last season, with no other player recording more than 369. Given the level of offensive talent the Rams possess, it is tough to see a path to the 49ers holding a significant lead while leaning on the running game at too high a rate. Expect McCaffrey’s rushing opportunities to be limited and for success to be difficult to come by against this strong Los Angeles defensive line. The former Comeback Player of the Year is too talented not to make his impact felt in this game in some way. But this matchup is much more favorable for his impact in the passing game. Expect the 59.5 rushing yard total to be too lofty and for McCaffrey to remain under this total in Thursday’s matchup.
Terrance Ferguson to Record 40+ Receiving Yards (+175)
The Rams selected Terrance Ferguson with the 46th overall pick in last year’s draft. Despite joining a loaded tight end room headlined by Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee, the rookie gradually made his impact felt in the Los Angeles offense. Ferguson is the most talented pure route-runner and pass-catcher in the group, and his role expanded as last year’s season progressed. The 23-year-old finished the season with just 11 receptions on 25 targets, but turned these into 231 receiving yards and three scores. Ferguson played just 39% of the offensive snaps on the season, but logged 64.3% or greater in three of the final four regular season games and 59% of the offensive snaps in the final postseason game. He tallied five receptions for 87 yards and two touchdowns across his final two regular season games.
With a full offseason to get acclimated to the Rams’ offense, expect bigger things from Ferguson in Year 2. While Puka Nacua and Davante Adams headline the receiving production, Los Angeles played 13 personnel at a high rate last season. This pulls one of the two top wide receivers off the field and helps maximize the tight ends’ impact. Ferguson grew into the second target in these offensive sets by the end of the season, and he is perfectly capable of rotating all over the field when he is asked. The Oregon product is a deep-ball threat in a way that is rare at the tight end position, and Sean McVay is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the sport, who will be eager to capitalize on this.
The standard Week 1 receiving prop line for Ferguson is set at 24.5 yards on DraftKings Sportsbook. But given the boom-or-bust nature of his role last season, I am pushing the receiving total up a notch and backing the Rams’ tight end to eclipse 40-plus yards. Ferguson will benefit from the same vulnerable secondary that ranked 25th in passing yards allowed last season, and his growth throughout his rookie year was extremely encouraging. I am buckling up for a big season for Ferguson, well beyond expectations, and want to get ahead of it early. With this favorable matchup against the 49ers, look for him to get involved right away.
