NC State coach Dave Doeren has had almost two weeks to sit with the 34-8 loss at Virginia, which is decidedly an unnecessarily generous amount of time to ponder just 168 yards of offense. Richmond rolls into to Carter-Finley on Friday for the Wolfpack’s home opener. The Spiders have already beaten Bucknell and Howard this season, and are feeling the buoy of 2-0. NC State’s supporters, meanwhile, have had an idle Saturday to get themselves thoroughly restless. Fair enough. There wasn’t much in Charlottesville worth defending. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the NC State Wolfpack and the Richmond Spiders.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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NC State vs. Richmond prediction, preview
NC State’s CJ Bailey threw for a paltry 84 yards and averaged 3.4 yards per pass attempt against Virginia in Week 0. That amounted to only 10 first downs, so the Wolfpack defense spent much of the afternoon gassed—hands-on-hips—watching the Cavaliers run the ball wherever, however it pleased. The entire offense needs complement the defense more, and Richmond should be a considerably more accommodating opponent to score on. But before I start projecting a Bailey bounceback, I want to account for a Spiders defense that held Howard to 240 yards and four conversions on 16 third downs. Daniel Sellers recorded two sacks, part of a four-sack afternoon. He can at least make Bailey uncomfortable. Hard to anticipate how much the bye week will fix in that passing game, but I’m assuming some.
Richmond’s 28-21 win wasn’t whatsoever perfect, so there are avenus for NC State to exploit. Quarterback Ashten Snelsire threw three touchdowns, but two happened on possessions beginning at the Howard 20 and 29. Those short fields were almost desperately necessary; the Spiders rushed for just 67 yards on 28 carries (2.4 YPC).
Snelsire has receivers who can help him when the sticks get far away. Freshman Bryce Allen has three touchdowns through two games; tight end Sean Clarke caught seven passes for 80 yards Saturday. Clarke interests me here because NC State just lost linebacker AJ Richardson for the season to a biceps injury. The Wolfpack already surrendered 258 rushing yards at Virginia, so I imagine their temptation to overcorrect and crowd the line will be considerable. Snelsire finding Clarke on a seam over the top of those linebackers is a solid way for Richmond to rely on chain-movement. Asking this running game to do much of anything feels a little fruitless. The offense has had two games to work out its kinks, however.
Richmond vs. NC State pick, best bet
Vanderbilt awaits NC State on 9/19, and they need to show something on Friday they can hold onto headed into Nashville. I suspect that means repeated early work for the running game, and manageable throws for Bailey. A crowd impatient for touchdowns might have to tolerate a few mundane possessions first, and that’s fine. The run game hasn’t been productive, but it can still be diagnostic. On the other side of the ball, Richmond’s inability to run should help the Wolfpack get those opportunities without having to chase the game.
I’m taking under 48.5. NC State can improve substantially and win comfortably while this stays in the low 40s. Richmond needed considerable help manufacturing 28 points against Howard; its protection and rushing problems make another four-touchdown night difficult to envision here. Sacks and turnovers could, of course, supply more cheap scoring chances. I’m allowing for some of that in a 34-10 finish, with enough stalled drives between the mistakes to keep us below the number.
Best bet: Under 48.5 (-105)
Projected score: NC State 34, Richmond 10
Best Bet: NC State vs. Richmond u48.5 total points (-105)
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