Darian Mensah made a fairly convincing introduction at Miami: 401 passing yards, five touchdowns, and a 45-6 win against Stanford. Malachi Toney caught 12 passes for a school-record 234 yards, giving his new quarterback an exceptionally accommodating first assignment, and giving the world a Heisman-hopeful to root for. Thursday brings the home opener against Florida A&M. The Rattlers already played at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, losing 31-13 to South Carolina State. To say this is a considerably harder appointment is just too forgiving. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida A&M Rattlers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Miami vs. Florida A&M prediction, preview
For Quinn Gray, in his first season coaching FAMU, the offense is already getting a fluid triaging. It needs it in a big way. South Carolina State held the FAMU offense to 29 yards on 25 carries. Miami will overload the box until Gray and his quarterback(s) finds something in his playbook to keep the secondary honest. His offense supplied just two field goals across 13 possessions Sunday; Justin Bostic scored the lone touchdown on a pick-six. There was zilch for offensive momentum.
Gray also changed quarterbacks during that loss, replacing starter Isaiah Knowles with Dustin Fletcher. Knowles had completed seven of 22 passes before Fletcher came in and dotted six-of-eight to finish. The protection gave him little to work with: Fletcher took three of his team’s five sacks, despite fourteen fewer pass attempts than Gray. Miami does have some injuries in the secondary that Fletcher can exploit. But, to be honest, I’d be more interested in targeting those replacements if FAMU had shown it could give its receivers time to reach them.
Getting Miami’s offense off the field presents Gray with an uglier problem. South Carolina State rushed for 292 yards at 7.7 per carry; FAMU could scarcely object to another handoff coming. That makes Miami’s running game worth watching after Mensah’s spectacular opener overshadowed its 3.8 yards per rush. There should be room for Mark Fletcher Jr. and the other backs to improve on that. Even after the starters leave, a conservative play call could turn into a long touchdown.
Florida A&M vs. Miami pick, best bet
Cristobal did give his backup quarterback, Luke Nickel, meaningful work against Stanford; he was in before the third quarter ended. Already ahead 42-6, Miami closed its final three possessions with a punt, an interception, and a field goal. I can see Thursday following a similar course once the lead gets gargantuan. After flying home from California, Miami heads to Wake Forest on 9/18. The team’ll want those replacement corners taking snaps together before that trip, with enough offensive reserves playing to get some meaningful gametime in, too.
I’m taking under 62.5. It still affords Miami plenty of scoreboard decimation before those substitutions arrive. A 52-7 finish would leave 3.5 points to spare, and Sunday gave me little reason to expect seven from FAMU. The Rattlers converted four of 17 third downs while producing 161 yards. Miami’s backups could certainly surrender a late score or add touchdowns themselves. At this number, the ticket accommodates some of both. Glorious.
Best bet: Under 62.5 (-108)
Projected score: Miami 52, Florida A&M 3
Best Bet: Miami vs. Florida A&M u62.5 total points (-110)
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