Clemson at LSU (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
Last year after Week 1 I made a note to make sure to look at unders the following season in matchups between two good teams playing in Week 1. Maybe not if experienced and high powered offenses are playing, but with teams where the defense projects to be ahead of the offense. This should be one of those cases.
Games like Ohio State vs. Texas (14-7), Alabama vs. Florida State (31-17), Notre Dame vs. Miami (27-24) and LSU vs. Clemson (17-10) all went under, and got my attention. Last year’s meeting in Week 1 at Clemson only generated 27 total points, and that was with quarterbacks who are now both in the NFL.
Clemson returns just three starters on offense, and will have an inexperienced QB under center. Chad Morris comes in to run the offense for the Tigers. After surprisingly ranking 105th in rushing yards per game last season, despite what projected as an elite offensive line, the focus is supposed to be on reestablishing the running game for Clemson. As usual, Dabo Swinney refused to add impact players in the transfer portal on offense.
Tom Allen did a solid job running the defense last season, but did lose a lot of star power. Clemson was deep on this side of the ball, though, and has highly rated recruits ready to step into starting roles. Swinney was also less stubborn in the transfer pool on defense, and brought in a handful of projected starters.
We know all the hype on the LSU side with Lane Kiffin, who took the HC job and added a historic transfer class. Outside of returning the running backs, its an entirely new offense here. Sam Leavitt was a great grab at QB from Arizona State, but missed spring camp while recovering from his season-ending foot injury. He will be working with a WR room entirely built on transfers. The offensive line is also talented, but not considered among the nation’s elite. It will feature four new starters. I can’t deny the potential of the talent here, but it’s asking a lot for this offense to be humming out of the gates against a solid defense.
The defense, however, is loaded for LSU. Kiffin kept Blake Baker at DC after a lot of success last season. The Tigers maintained several starters on this side of the ball, while adding in elite transfer talent, much of it from within the SEC. Pick Six Previews ranks all three position groups of the defense as top-12 in the country.
I’m most confident in LSU’s defense at home being able to slow Clemson’s offense. But I also think the Clemson defense catches LSU in a good spot here when its still attempting to gel. Defenses should thrive in this one, and I’m expecting a lower scoring game than projected.
CFB Pick: UNDER 51.5 (-115) — 2-units
