We’ve consumed the eight-game appetizer that was Week 0 last Saturday, and now it’s time for the main course. Week 1 of college football is here, with a five-day slate of games spanning over Labor Day Weekend. With countless games on the board, let’s dive into some predictions and picks on the game in my best bets cheat sheet.
I’ll be updating this article throughout the week and adding more plays, so be sure to check back for more picks. I’m publishing on Monday with the full week leading up to the games. I have a few more games that I have a lean on and will add them if/when they become bets throughout the week.
Oklahoma State at Tulsa (Saturday – 3:45pm ET)
This is one of those rare Week 1 matchups with a Power-4 squad visiting a G6 team. You could make the argument Oklahoma State practically is a G6 roster as well. After bottoming out with a 1-11 season, the Cowboys brought in Eric Morris from North Texas. Morris led the Mean Green to a 12-2 record, and brings a ton of his top talent from the roster with him. Regardless, we know Tulsa will be up for a home game against a Big 12 school.
Tulsa actually got a road win at Oklahoma State last year as a nine-point underdog, but we can toss out the revenge angle, as the Cowboys have an entirely new roster. North Texas averaged about 45 points per game last season, and with the bulk of that offense transferring over, I think we can safely project another strong season there. However, the defense is a complete rebuilding project, and is not yet fixed.
The Golden Hurricane had some growing pains in their first season under Tre Lamb, but three of their losses were by one possession. The win over the Cowboys was actually one of three outright upsets that Tulsa pulled as the underdog. Tulsa has a much more experienced team this season, with 15 starters returning. I expect the Golden Hurricane to be a scrappy home dog here in Week 1.
CFB Pick: Tulsa +14 (-110)
Clemson at LSU (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
Last year after Week 1 I made a note to make sure to look at unders the following season in matchups between two good teams playing in Week 1. Maybe not if experienced and high powered offenses are playing, but with teams where the defense projects to be ahead of the offense. This should be one of those cases.
Games like Ohio State vs. Texas (14-7), Alabama vs. Florida State (31-17), Notre Dame vs. Miami (27-24) and LSU vs. Clemson (17-10) all went under, and got my attention. Last year’s meeting in Week 1 at Clemson only generated 27 total points, and that was with quarterbacks who are now both in the NFL.
Clemson returns just three starters on offense, and will have an inexperienced QB under center. Chad Morris comes in to run the offense for the Tigers. After surprisingly ranking 105th in rushing yards per game last season, despite what projected as an elite offensive line, the focus is supposed to be on reestablishing the running game for Clemson. As usual, Dabo Swinney refused to add impact players in the transfer portal on offense.
Tom Allen did a solid job running the defense last season, but did lose a lot of star power. Clemson was deep on this side of the ball, though, and has highly rated recruits ready to step into starting roles. Swinney was also less stubborn in the transfer pool on defense, and brought in a handful of projected starters.
We know all the hype on the LSU side with Lane Kiffin, who took the HC job and added a historic transfer class. Outside of returning the running backs, its an entirely new offense here. Sam Leavitt was a great grab at QB from Arizona State, but missed spring camp while recovering from his season-ending foot injury. He will be working with a WR room entirely built on transfers. The offensive line is also talented, but not considered among the nation’s elite. It will feature four new starters. I can’t deny the potential of the talent here, but it’s asking a lot for this offense to be humming out of the gates against a solid defense.
The defense, however, is loaded for LSU. Kiffin kept Blake Baker at DC after a lot of success last season. The Tigers maintained several starters on this side of the ball, while adding in elite transfer talent, much of it from within the SEC. Pick Six Previews ranks all three position groups of the defense as top-12 in the country.
I’m most confident in LSU’s defense at home being able to slow Clemson’s offense. But I also think the Clemson defense catches LSU in a good spot here when its still attempting to gel. Defenses should thrive in this one, and I’m expecting a lower scoring game than projected.
CFB Pick: UNDER 51.5 (-115) — 2-units
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers (Saturday – 7pm ET)
Memphis impressed with a big win as a road underdog in Week 0 at UNLV. Charles Huff is a terrific head coach and had his team thriving down the stretch in the comeback victory. Huff embraces a “no fun” attitude, calling the atmosphere in the locker room after a win being the fun part. So Huff will certainly be doing his best to keep his team motivated here in Week 1.
That’s going to be easier said than done. Memphis earned a nationally televised win, and goes on the road again next week to face Boise State — another massive game when it comes to the Group of Six and the potential College Football Playoff spot. A letdown spot from Week 0 and a lookahead spot to Week 2 … the Red Wolves could be getting overlooked here.
Arkansas State has tape on Memphis, and the Tigers couldn’t hold anything back against UNLV. Butch Jones has also had tons of success with the Red Wolves in the underdog role. They’ve racked up 11 straight up wins as the dog over the last three seasons, including as a double digit dog at Texas State just last season.
Arkansas State has done a good job hanging around in big underdog spots as well — it lost by eight points last season to a ranked Iowa State team and by 10 points the season before at Michigan. The Red Wolves also have some potential talent at the QB position, with a Texas Longhorns transfer taking over at the helm. I like the talent, I like the coaching and I like the spot for Arkansas State.
This number opened 10.5 and was bet all the way down to 8.5 before the season began. Now it’s all the way out to 11.5 because of how Memphis looked in Week 0. I’ll buy low and fade some of that hype.
CFB Pick: Arkansas State +11.5 (-110)
UNLV at Hawaii (Saturday – 10pm ET)
This is an interesting one, as we got a look at both of these teams in Week 0. UNLV and Hawaii both have hopes of solid seasons in the Mountain West, and both took tough losses that came down to the end to open their seasons. It’s an early desperation spot, as 0-2 would be very disappointing for either side.
Dan Mullin got severely out-coached by Charles Huff in the loss to Memphis. UNLV failed to make many adjustments, and the Tigers cashed in. Hawaii was the opposite. Despite a poor start to the game, and missing some key pieces in the passing game, the Bows adjusted and found their stride as the game went on. A killer fumble ended the comeback bid, and was a brutal beat for Hawaii backers, but I liked how Timmy Chang’s squad responded.
The Rebels also lost their best offensive lineman late in the loss to Memphis. Jackson Arnold, who was already under a lot of pressure to begin with, could not stay upright after his OL had to add a new piece and shift around. Arnold wasn’t sacked until the middle of the third quarter, yet the Memphis defense ended the game with six sacks. If the OL is not intact on Saturday night on the island, UNLV’s offense would take a huge hit.
Hawaii is 13-5 ATS as a home underdog under Chang, and 21-6-1 ATS at home overall. I’ll take the points with the Bows to bounce back.
CFB Pick: Hawaii +3 (-112)
UCLA at Cal (Saturday – 10:30pm ET)
Find my breakdown and play for the game in my article on the game here.
CFB Pick: UCLA ML (-125)
Louisville vs. Ole Miss (Sunday – 7:30pm ET – Nashville, TN)
There’s not much bad I can say about Ole Miss. The Rebels responded perfectly to Kiffin’s departure ahead of the College Football Playoff. They upset Georgia as the underdog and then took Miami right down to the wire. Ole Miss has a nice balance of returning talent and transfers, bringing in the No. 2 transfer class, behind only Kiffin’s haul at LSU.
The returning talent is headlined by the best QB/RB combo in the country, with Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. This is a team with CFP potential once again. However, this is a very difficult opening game against Louisville on a neutral field.
The Cardinals went 9-4 last season, getting crushed by SMU, but their first three losses were by a combined seven points. They showed high upside, though, with a big upset win over Miami in October. Louisville won with strong defense and an explosive running game in 2025, and those elements should return. Miller Moss was not the answer at QB, though, and that problem could be solved in 2026.
Lincoln Kienholz transfers in after being a backup in talented QB rooms at Ohio State for the past two seasons. All the pieces are in place for him to elevate this passing game and make the Cardinals even more balanced and dangerous.
This is Jeff Brohm’s most talented roster yet at Louisville, and we know he’s thrived as an underdog. He was tremendous ATS as a dog during his time at Purdue, and is now 5-2 ATS when booked as the underdog as the HC at Louisville — all five were upset victories.
Again, I’m not down on Ole Miss, but this Louisville team is talented and well coached. I’ll take the Cardinals to hang within a score on a neutral in what could be the most high profile game of the entire weekend.
CFB Pick: Louisville +7 (-110)
SMU at FSU (Monday – 7:30pm ET)
CFB Pick: SMU -2.5 (-115) — 2-units
Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Thursday – 8pm ET)
Baylor Bears vs. Auburn Tigers (Saturday – 3:30pm ET – Atlanta, GA)
Georgia Tech has some moving parts entering the season, and it remains to be seen just how good it can be. Alberto Mendoza, Fernando’s brother, transfers in from Indiana at QB. He’ll be working with a completely rebuilt group of receivers. The biggest reason why the Yellow Jackets went from 8-0 to 9-4 last year was the defense falling apart late in the season.
The defense returns four starters, and the strength should be the linebackers. There are question marks here, but I think they will show up over the course of the season in the ACC rather than a Week 1 semi-home game against Colorado. The one advantage the Buffs could have in this matchup is hitting deep passes. GT lost five of its top six members in the secondary from last season, while the strength of Colorado’s depleted roster is the WR room, and its not even close. Colorado made an offensive coordinator change, and is expected to take deep shots this season.
Georgia Tech stopping those deep shots will be one of the keys to this game, but I believe it can hold up. Why? The Buffs’ offensive line was dreadful last season and is in a complete rebuild. They ranked among the worst in the country in pass protection, and were not much better getting the run game going. All preseason publications rank Colorado’s OL among the worst in the Big 12, many placing it dead last. It’s one of the worst offensive lines in the Power-4. I expect the Yellow Jackets’ defensive line to have success in this matchup.
The key on the other side of the ball will be Georgia Tech’s run game. It was one of the best rushing offenses in the country last season, and will be emphasized again in 2026. Justice Haynes spent time at RB1 for Michigan, and transfers in to lead a talented GT backfield. Pick Six Previews ranks the RB room No. 2 in the ACC and just outside the top-10 nationally. It pairs with an elite offensive line, that PSP also ranks No. 2 in the ACC and in the top-15 nationally. That plays right into the Buffs’ weakness — they ranked as the second-worst run defense in the country last season.
Long story short, I expect Georgia Tech to get to the quarterback and run the ball down Colorado’s throat to win this game.
If you’re looking for a battle in the trenches, Baylor vs. Auburn is not the game for you.
Both offensive and defensive lines here could be a work in progress, but I feel the Tigers have plenty of other advantages. These teams met in the season opener last year and I backed Baylor. Auburn ran the ball for over 300 yards and dominated the game, despite Baylor being able to move the ball through the air, and handed me a loser.
That entire Baylor offense is gone this season. 10 starters depart on offense, and while some solid pieces were brought in via transfer, the new look offense projects nowhere on the same level. The defense was historically bad last season, giving up nearly 200 rushing yards per game, along with one of the worst pass rushes in the country. Baylor hired a new DC and transfers in talent, so it should at least be improved. But the losses on offense look to be far more significant than the gains on defense.
While Auburn is shaky on the lines, the rest of the roster has plenty of talent. The big upgrades should come on offense. Alex Golesh ran an elite offense at South Florida, and comes over as the new head coach of the Tigers. He brings most of his best weapons from USF — a RB, half the OL, an entire WR room, and the headliner being QB Byrum Brown. USF was a top-five offense last season, and now combines the best pieces from that team with some leftover SEC talent that remained at Auburn.
On top of that, the defense should be solid — Auburn was a top-20 defense last season. It returns its DC, five starters (including an All American in Xavier Atkins) and transfers in some good talent. Better on both sides of the ball with what should be a pro-Auburn crowd in Atlanta should result in another win in this matchup for the Tigers.
CFB Pick: Georgia Tech/Auburn ML Parlay (-108)
Toledo at Michigan State (Friday – 8pm ET)
After another poor season, Michigan State made a move to bring in Pat Fitzgerald at head coach. Fitzgerald is extremely familiar with the conference after nearly two decades at Northwestern, but has been away from coaching for a couple of seasons. Generally, when a program changes hands, the new coach brings some of the talent from the last stop. That’s not the case this time around, and it should prevent Sparty from making a big jump in the first season under Fitzgerald.
But I do believe this team will be well coached and capitalize when it gets chances to win, and an opening Friday night game against Toledo is one of those opportunities. Fitzgerald prioritized added experienced players, and while few come from power conferences, they have a lot of snaps.
The offensive line improved as 2026 progressed for the Spartans, and the one area of stability the roster does seem to have is at QB. Alessio Milivojevic was thrusted into action as a freshman and developed nicely. He gives the offense potential in his first full season as the starter.
Toledo brings in a new head coach from the FCS level. Mike Jacobs coached at Mercer, and the general perception of this hire seems to be positive. Just two starters return for Toledo, so it’ll rely on a lot of transfers, including from Mercer. I don’t know much about Jacobs, but looking at his track record last season, I’m struggling to see why he earned this promotion.
Mercer seemed constantly unprepared in 2025. It lost it’s opener to Presbyterian as a 22.5-point favorite. You’d think Mercer would be locked in the following week as a double digit favorite once again in a matchup against Wofford. Mercer squeaked out a one-point victory. Mercer got hammered when it stepped up in talent, losing 62-27 to Auburn and 47-0 to South Dakota.
Is Jacobs really going to have a brand new Toledo roster ready for a trip to Michigan State in Week 1? I think this is a spot Sparty flexes and gets Fitzgerald off to a convincing 1-0 start, before the road becomes far more difficult.
CFB Pick: Michigan State -9.5 (-110)
Fresno State at USC (Friday – 9pm ET)
We got a look at the Trojans in Week 0, and while they were in constant control against San Jose State, the win wasn’t as dominant as you’d like to see. With a spread floating between 37 and 40, USC managed just 42 points. The defense that many hoped would be fixed by Gary Patterson was still shaky, giving up 26 points to the Spartans.
If USC doesn’t up its game heading into Week 1, Fresno State could be able to give it a game. The stadium was embarrassingly empty for the season opener, and the Los Angeles crowd may opt for other plans on a Friday night again. USC plays on a quick turnaround here, and the Bulldogs have some Week 0 tape to study entering this matchup.
The Trojans should score points once again, but Fresno projects as one of the top defenses in the PAC-12, and can likely provide more resistance than San Jose State. The Bulldogs return 13 starters from a solid 9-4 team in 2025, and are a trendy pick to surprise in the PAC-12 this season.
Fresno slowed the pace in 2025, with a strong run game that was effective and helped the defense as well. Many of those key pieces are back, with an experienced RB room and veteran offensive line. I’m not calling for the upset here, but Fresno’s style of play, along with just enough talent, should keep them at least within three touchdowns here. This one was sitting 23.5 prior to Week 0 and is starting to get bet down. I’ll grab the points with the Bulldogs while it’s still on the right side of 21.
CFB Pick: Fresno State +22.5 (-108)
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