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Tulane Green Wave vs. Duke Blue Devils: College Football prediction, pick for Week 1 on Saturday 9/5/26

Tulane Green Wave vs. Duke Blue Devils: College Football prediction, pick for Week 1 on Saturday 9/5/26

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By: Sam Connon

Darian Mensah just made his much-anticipated debut for Miami (FL) on Friday, but it’s the quarterback’s two former teams who are going head-to-head in Durham on Saturday. Duke will play host to Tulane, fresh off a pair of nine-win seasons and an ACC Championship in 2025. Tulane won the American Conference last year, even reaching the College Football Playoff, although Jon Sumrall left for the Florida gig and passed off head coaching duties to passing game coordinator Will Hall. And for all the turnover, it is worth noting that the Green Wave beat the Blue Devils 34-27 when they faced off in New Orleans last year.

Duke is a 7.5-point favorite at home on Saturday with -325ย Moneylineย odds, all while the point total has been set at 51.5. Here is a preview of the Week 1 showdown featuring odds and lines fromย DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tulane Green Wave vs. Duke Blue Devils Preview

Tulane Preview

Now that Jake Retzlaff is playing in Canada, Zeon Chriss-Gremillion is stepping in as the Green Wave’s next signal-caller. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound quarterback totaled 2,263 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, a 63.9% completion percentage and a 131.7 passer rating during his four seasons at Louisiana and Houston, as well as 992 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Chriss arrives alongside LSU transfer Destyn Hill and UCF transfer Bredell Richardson, although neither contributed much with their prior schools. Former Indiana and Florida State running back Jaylin Lucas has a deeper resume, but he is even more heralded as a kick returner.

Leading receiver Shazz Preston transferred to Indiana, while wideout Omari Hayes and running back Arnold Barnes III left for Iowa State, tight end Justyn Reid went to Louisville, running back Javin Gordon moved to Tennessee and receiver Bryce Bohanon graduated. That leaves Anthony Brown-Stephens as the Green Wave’s top returning pass-catcher with his 523 yards and two touchdowns on 41 receptions last season, followed by Zycarl Lewis Jr. and his 330 yards and two touchdowns on 24 catches. Running back Jamauri McClure is back, too, after going for 540 yards on just 83 carries a year ago.

While safety Jack Tchienchou and linebacker Chris Rodgers both came back after 80-tackle seasons, Tulane still lost safety Bailey Despanie and linebacker Sam Howard to graduation, cornerback Javion White to Houston, cornerback Jaheim Johnson to Arkansas, defensive end Harvey Dyson III to NC State, Jordan Norman to Tennessee and defensive lineman Santana Hopper to Colorado. Safety Kevin Adams III and nickelback E’zaiah Shine are returning to the defensive backfield as well, plus cornerback Anthony Rogers has transferred in from Nicholls. Dickson Agu and Makai Williams are also back in the linebacking corps, while defensive tackle Ed Smith IV has entered the fray after six years at South Alabama.

The Green Wave ranked No. 68 in points per game and No. 57 in points allowed per game last season. Their defense allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, as well as the seventh-highest completion percentage, although their rushing yards allowed per game and per carry were both good for top-30 in the nation. They also ranked No. 20 in turnover margin. After finishing 2025 ranked No. 18 in the AP poll, Tulane earned one point in the preseason vote.

Duke Preview

In total, the Blue Devils return just 10 starters from last year’s conference championship squad. One of those 10 is running back Nate Sheppard, who just racked up 1,418 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage as a true freshman a year ago. There is even more pressure on Sheppard to perform in 2026, given the fresh face at quarterback and the fact that his two backups โ€“ Anderson Castle and Jaquez Moore โ€“ aged out of the college ranks. Incoming transfer CJ Campbell produced at Florida Atlantic in 2024, but didn’t do much at Florida State in 2022 and 2023 or Rutgers in 2025. And while the interior line remains mostly in tact, starting tackles Bruno Fina and Brian Parker II are gone. Elite Coastal Carolina transfer Nick Del Grande and Cal transfer Braden Miller have arrived to replace them, potentially keeping the running game humming.

The passing game will go through much more drastic changes. Walker Eget was the full-time starter at San Jose State the past two seasons, racking up 5,555 yards, 30 touchdowns and 19 interceptions with a 58.3% completion percentage and 133.4 passer rating. The 6-foot-3 veteran’s 181 career rushing yards are limited by sacks, but he isn’t much of a runner regardless. With top receiver Cooper Barkate following Mensah to the Hurricanes, Sean Brown transferring to Virginia Tech, Chase Tyler transferring to Wake Forest and Sahmir Hagan and Andrel Anthony turning pro, Sheppard and veteran tight end Jeremiah Hasley are the only returnees with more than 50 receiving yards last season. UPenn All-American Jared Richardson and former LSU and Charlotte wideout Javen Nicholas โ€“ a Biletnikoff Award Watch List member โ€“ will get the lion’s share of the targets to open the year.

The Blue Devils lost safety Caleb Weaver, linebacker Jaiden Francois and linebacker Tre Freeman to graduation, cornerback Moussa Kane to the transfer portal, plus defensive end Wesley Williams, defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr., defensive tackle Josiah Green, cornerback Chandler Rivers and defensive tackle Aaron Hall to the NFL. Their replacements are coming largely from within, with the exception of Montana cornerback Kyon Loud, Western Kentucky cornerback Dylan Flowers, Penn State defensive lineman Owen Wafle and Dartmouth defensive lineman Dakota Quiรฑonez.

Duke averaged the 16th-most points per game in the country in 2025, but also ranked No. 99 in points allowed per game. They allowed the third-most passing yards and the 10th-highest completion percentage, ranking in the bottom-25 in passer rating against. The 24 turnovers that the Blue Devils forced, meanwhile, were good for 14th-most in FBS.

Tulane Green Wave vs. Duke Blue Devils Pick, Best Bets

What a difference a year makes in today’s college football landscape. One team lost their head coach, while both have changed quarterbacks and need to replace most of their offensive production. Looking back to Tulane’s 34-27 win over Duke this time last season isn’t as insightful as it would have been in past eras.

That being said, the Blue Devils’ defense was already porous in 2025 and has mostly promoted last year’s backups to fill in for the outgoing talent. That may work out in the long run, but it’s hard to see defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke’s unit looking better out of the gates. Green Wave OC-turned-HC Will Hall should run a familiar system despite former Florida OC Russ Callaway technically calling plays and Zeon Chriss-Gremillion taking over at QB. Duke, meanwhile, could take advantage of a Tulane defense that struggled against the pass last season and lost several veteran DBs. Eget is pretty boom or bust QB, but I like his odds of popping off. Sheppard should get more than the five carries he got last year, too. All of that adds up to what I could see as a pretty high-scoring game, to say nothing of the 61 points the teams combined for 12 months ago.

Best Bet: O 51.5 (-102)


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