For now, it looks like it’ll be Jaylen Warren leading the Steelers’ backfield, at least on paper. Although it appears more and more that Pittsburgh will make the the decision uncomfortably tight. Warren’s got first billing on the official depth chart. Having said that, Pittsburgh just traded Kaleb Johnson to the Packers; he wasn’t a key piece to the room yet, of course, but he did represent depth. That transaction concentrates the conventional workload to an 1A/1B split between Warren and Rico Dowdle, still.
Below, I break down the split, and how you should handle it for your Week 1 lineups/DFS contests.
Jaylen Warren vs. Rico Dowdle for fantasy football Week 1
Warren’s talent (and my bias for him!) aside, Pittsburgh showed us this backfield should be a committee. Warren handled all three opening-drive snaps against the Jets. Dowdle then took all four snaps on the second series. They finished with nine and 10 snaps, respectively, and carried the ball five times a piece. All to say: but for camp speak, which I’m loathe to let make decisions for us: Pittsburgh showed us no volume preference to either back.
So, for Week 1, let’s go with upside and efficiency. Pure rushing efficiency alone barely separates them. Warren generated a 43.1% success rate and -0.02 EPA per rush last season. Dowdle finished at 41.5% and -0.03 in the same categories. Eerily similar. Warren’s longer record of said efficiency, however, still has me granting him the tiebreakers. Since 2022, he has averaged 3.3 yards after contact and avoided tackles on a whopping 27.8% of his carries. That’s angry-run toughness I want to trust right out of the gate in the team’s opener.
Not to mention, amidst all the praise for Dowdle in camp, all soundbytes suggest Warren’ll still be the primary passing down back for Aaron Rodgers. He ranked third in yards per route, and seventh in first downs per route last season. Dowdle placed 17th and 16th in those categories, so it’s almost no contest, here. Pittsburgh targeted its backfield at the NFL’s second-highest rate last season, but those numbers might be a bit skewed: Rodgers loved recent-departure Kenny Gainwell for exactly those scenarios. And so we’ll expect his offense to still favor quick answers, which Warren has reliably churned into useful PPR production.
Start: Jaylen Warren
To be fair, Dowdle is the one likelier to pop for a big rushing opener. From Week 5 onward in Carolina last year, he gained 993 yards and +189 rushing yards over expected, both good for sixth leaguewide. That surge, however, was hyper-dependent upon volume. Once Chuba Hubbard returned, Dowdle never reached 60 rushing yards over his final eight games, then received just six playoff touches.
His six touchdowns on eight carries inside the five-yard line, however, offer him a fantasy-scoring path to oust Warren, who only converted four of 14. Dowdle should be the goal-line hammer. However, Pittsburgh has not officially assigned its goal-line work.
Matchupwise, Atlanta allowed +0.01 EPA per rush and 4.6 yards per carry, so this defense can be run on, especially with all their offseason injuries and strife. I project Warren for 12 carries and four targets, compared with 10 and two for Dowdle. Warren is my low-end PPR RB2. Dowdle is a touchdown-dependent flex whose narrower receiving role leaves less room for an inefficient rushing day.
