The NL East will be a division to watch ahead of Monday’s MLB trade deadline, as the division has two bona fide buyers, one obvious seller, and a surprising contender that could still choose to add some pieces while continuing to build towards the future.
The New York Mets are the clear sellers, and they’ll face another probable seller in the Miami Marlins tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET in the second game of a four-game set at Citi Field. Miami won’t trade Sandy Alcantara or Eury Pérez, but it’ll listen to offers on everybody else.
The Marlins have announced Janson Junk as their starter for tonight’s game, while New York scratched Freddy Peralta ahead of the trade deadline and will turn to Kodai Senga instead.
Let’s break down this divisional showdown with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (+101): Though the Mets won the series opener last night, they’ve lost 11 of the 12 games in which Senga has appeared, and while some of those defeats weren’t his fault, he has taken the loss in six of his seven starts.
- Kodai Senga Most Strikeouts Thrown Moneyline (-103): To be fair, Senga has decent strikeout stuff, as he threw nine strikeouts against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this season. Junk doesn’t, maxing out at six strikeouts in any one of his 14 starts this season.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets prediction, preview
Miami’s season came undone right before the All-Star break. Though the Marlins had a brief 26-8 run to climb to 10 games over .500, they lost a franchise-record 12 in a row, and even after sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies, a loss in the series opener left them at exactly .500 with just a 15.4% chance of ultimately qualifying for the postseason. Though they’ve still had the seventh-best offense overall, that’s dropped to 10th-worst since the All-Star break, and it’ll certainly get worse if they end up trading All-Star shortstop Otto Lopez, who leads all of baseball in both hits and doubles. Additionally, while Miami has had an average rotation and bullpen overall, its relievers have been extremely poor since the All-Star break, posting a near-6 ERA. Last night, it was Michael Petersen, on paper the second-best of the Marlins’ healthy relievers, who took the loss, giving up two runs and getting just two outs to ruin Pérez’s solid outing. If Miami does opt to more aggressively offload some of its older players at the trade deadline, Petersen could be on the move.
Meanwhile, the Mets have operated in sell mode for much of the season, since their playoff chances ended early after a 12-game losing streak in April. On paper, New York has plenty of talent (including a future Hall of Famer in the prime of his career in the currently-injured Juan Soto), but Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Bo Bichette are all well past their primes, so the Mets have managed the third-worst OPS in baseball. Rookie center fielder A.J. Ewing has been basically New York’s only bright spot, though even he’s had just a .598 OPS since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Mets have paired their horrific offense with a below-average rotation, as Peralta hasn’t performed up to the standard that he did last season for the Milwaukee Brewers and they haven’t gotten anything from their fifth starter. Peralta is expected to be traded back to Milwaukee, and star relievers Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley are expected to be on the move as well.
Junk could be a name to watch in trade rumors, but as of now, he’s expected to start. He’s been inconsistent this season, as he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 14 starts but has three in which he’s given up six or more, including one of his three since returning from injury right before the All-Star break. All in all, advanced numbers suggest that Junk has been an average to slightly below-average pitcher, as he ranks in the 50th percentile in expected ERA and the 19th percentile in pitching run value. Junk has really struggled to induce whiffs, which could be a problem against a team with better-than-average contact skills. Additionally, he hasn’t struck out a ton of batters, mitigating one of New York’s biggest weaknesses. On the bright side, though, Junk doesn’t issue many walks, and while he has bottom-third hard-hit rate and average exit velocity metrics, he’s been better-than-average at avoiding barrels, a key against a very powerful lineup. The Mets’ inconsistency and Soto’s absence could allow him to put up decent numbers despite the fact that he’s been worse on the road and New York slightly better at home.
He should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Senga, who’s had a miserable season. The Gamagori, Japan native pitched to a 3.00 ERA across his first two-plus seasons, but he’s recorded a 10.08 ERA this season across his seven starts and only posted a 6.23 mark as a reliever and a 4.00 mark across three minor league levels. The Mets have won just one of the 11 games in which Senga has appeared. His advanced numbers are poor, as he ranks in just the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the third percentile in pitching run value. Plus, although Senga generates whiffs and strikeouts at relatively high rates, the Marlins have been one of baseball’s better contact teams, and their relative plate discipline should be an asset against Senga’s occasionally wild nature. Senga might be able to get away with comparatively less damage than usual because Miami is a soft-hitting team, but his propensity to give up fly balls and warm, dry Queens conditions is never a good combination against any team. Senga also has an ERA north of 11 at home this season, and the Marlins have been slightly better on the road.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (+101)
Admittedly, I picked Miami on the Moneyline in last night’s game and it lost because of Petersen’s implosion, but Nolan McLean is a far better pitcher than Senga, and Junk has been slightly better than his raw stats would suggest.
Strong Lean: Kodai Senga Most Strikeouts Thrown Moneyline (-103)
Even without Soto, New York doesn’t strike out all that much, and Senga’s forkball is more than capable of stymieing batters, as even this season, it has a whiff rate north of 40%. Junk simply doesn’t have a punch-out pitch on par, and it’s also possible that the Mets will be wary of putting Weaver and Raley into the game as they undergo trade negotiations.
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