It’s been a nightmare season for the Blue Jays (50-59), fresh off of winning a pennant in 2025. However, Toronto did do one thing right this offseason: signing standout pitcher Dylan Cease. The newly acquired ace will look to keep rolling at home tonight against the Cardinals (54-55). St. Louis needs every win it can get to keep pace in a busy National League wild card race. Which side has the edge tonight at Rogers Centre?
The Blue Jays are favorites (-193) over the Cardinals, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between St. Louis and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Cardinals vs. Blue Jays under 7.5 runs (-110): Cease alone is enough to prevent this total from getting out of hand. Leahy also comes into this one on a heater, and now gets to face a dismal Toronto lineup. There’s nothing that suggests an offensive outburst for either side tonight.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Although Cease is the headliner tonight, the Cardinals aren’t sending a scrub to the mound. Kyle Leahy has been terrific all season for the Redbirds. Through 101.1 innings pitched (20 starts), he’s notched a 3.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 88 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). Granted, there’s some cause for concern when looking over the veteran’s Savant page. He’s at the 13th percentile or worse in xERA (5.21), xBA (.272), chase rate (26.0%) and hard-hit rate (50%). Still, this is a results-based league; Leahy has posted a minuscule 1.15 ERA over his last six outings.
St. Louis’ hurler will hope to continue that success north of the border tonight. He’ll have a decent chance of doing just that against arguably the worst lineup in baseball. Toronto is last in runs scored (430), 26th in home runs (107) and 29th in OPS (.684). That’s without factoring in the potential loss of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (hamstring), currently listed as day-to-day. The first baseman sat out during the team’s most recent game on Wednesday. One glimmer of hope for the Blue Jays is their bat to ball skills; the team is striking out at the second-lowest rate in baseball. Regardless, that doesn’t mean much against a pitcher in Leahy that prefers to induce weak contact.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Cease toeing the slab tonight for Toronto. An All-Star Game starter for the American League, it’s been a career year for the right-hander. Through 113.1 innings of work (19 starts), he’s put up a 2.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 167 strikeouts. In addition, he currently paces the AL with a whopping 13.3 K/9 ratio. During his most recent outing, Cease tossed a nine-inning, one-hit masterpiece vs. Boston, striking out 12 batters as well. Those numbers are supported by a Savant page that is covered in red. The 30-year-old ranks within the 90th percentile in xERA (2.78), xBA (.191), average exit velocity (85.8 MPH), whiff rate (35.2%) and strikeout rate (36.5%).
There’s no reason to assume Cease will hit a speed bump this evening. The Cardinals have looked lost at the plate, scoring the second-fewest runs in baseball over their previous ten games. It’s not as if this group was tearing the cover off of the ball this season either. They placed 17th in runs scored (476), 23rd in home runs (113) and 26th in OPS (.692). Other than a quartet of above-average hitters, led by Jordan Walker, St. Louis’ lineup doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Best Bet: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays under 7.5 runs (-110)
There’s no way to fade Cease with confidence against a slumping St. Louis offense. However, the same can be said about a red-hot Leahy taking on the league’s lowest-scoring squad. Ultimately, these are two above-average pitchers going up against ice-cold lineups. It’s difficult to envision a boatload of runs on Friday.
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