A ninth inning walk-off carried the Reds (51-57) to a dramatic victory over the division rival Pirates (55-55). Now, Pittsburgh will look to even the score and keep pace in a jam-packed National League wild card race. Can Cincinnati pull off a second straight upset on Friday night?
The Pirates are favorites (-125) over the Reds, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Reds pick, best bet today
- Pirates ML (-125): Pittsburgh is in an advantageous spot this evening with its ace on the mound. Greene is capable of going toe to toe with Skenes, but he has much worse support at the plate. The Pirates, equipped with the superior pitcher and lineup, have the edge tonight.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction, preview
It’ll be none other than Paul Skenes on the mound in this one. Make no mistake: the reigning NL Cy Young winner remains a dominant force on the mound. However, he’s been slightly less effective than usual in 2026. Through 120.2 innings of work this season, the right-hander has notched a 3.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 149 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). A look under the hood suggests that the mildly high ERA isn’t cause for concern. Skenes sits within the 80th percentile or better in several key categories, including xERA (2.82), xBA (.207), chase rate (33.8%), strikeout rate (30.4%) and walk rate (5.7%).
After a shaky outing last weekend vs. Chicago, Pittsburgh’s ace has a prime opportunity to bounce back tonight. The Reds have been a mess offensively, other than the occasional long ball. They’re 27th in runs scored (443), 30th in batting average (.230) and 27th in on-base percentage (.309). Granted, Cincinnati is tied for sixth in the majors with 139 home runs. However, that’s just about the only thing this group does right. It doesn’t help that Skenes has dominated this matchup in the past. Over seven career meetings with the Reds, he’s recorded a 1.38 ERA.
On the other side, Hunter Greene will get the nod for Cincinnati. When fully healthy, the former All-Star is an absolute force on the mound. The only problem is that the fireballer is a frequent visitor to the injured list. 2026 is no exception; this will only be Greene’s fifth start. During that time, he’s posted a lackluster 7.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. To be fair, that’s a small sample size. It’s not as if the right-hander hasn’t shown some flashes this season. Look no further than July 10th vs. Chicago, in which he tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out 12.
With that being said, tonight’s contest could prove difficult for Greene. The Pirates are an offensive juggernaut, sitting near the top of the league in almost every major category. They’re second in runs scored (565), eighth in homers (138) and third in OPS (.755). A few key pieces are on the injured list, such as Oneil Cruz (hand) and Konnor Griffin (finger). Still, there’s more than enough firepower available for Pittsburgh. Six different members of the active roster (min. 100 plate appearances) have an OPS above 110. That includes rookie masher Esmerlyn Valdez (174 wRC+), who has taken the league by storm.
Best Bet: Pirates ML (-125)
Betting against someone of Greene’s talent is a risky proposition. However, he’ll be going against an even better arm in Skenes tonight. The Pirates haven’t always done a great job of giving their ace run support. Still, it’s not as if the Reds are poised to score in bunches against an elite pitcher. Add it all up, and Pittsburgh makes sense as road favorites on Friday.
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