To paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, all successful MLB teams are alike, and each unsuccessful team is unsuccessful in its own way. At the very least, for unsuccessful teams, collapses can come at different times; the New York Mets’ hearts were broken at the start of the season, while the Miami Marlins collapsed in midsummer after giving their fans hope.
Headed into their four-game series, which begins tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, neither team really has a realistic playoff dream. Each team will be looking ahead to 2027.
Tonight’s series opener should be a solid pitching battle, though; Eury Pérez will start for Miami, and Nolan McLean will take the mound for New York.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (+109): The Marlins finally broke their 12-game losing streak with a sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies, and with that malaise over, it’s worth picking the team that has been better all season, especially at plus-odds.
- Eury Pérez 7+ Strikeouts (+156): Pérez has struck out seven or more batters in three of his last five starts, including eight strikeouts across seven perfect innings on July 5, and although he fell short of that mark in the teams’ first matchup of the season, he had a career-high 11 against the Mets in his final game of 2025.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets prediction, preview
After narrowly missing the playoffs last season, the Marlins reached their nadir at the end of May, when a sweep at the hands of the Mets left them at 26-34. Then, Miami gave its fans hope with a 26-8 stretch before a franchise-record 12-game losing streak left it with just a 7.9% chance of making the playoffs. For the season as a whole, the Marlins have the seventh-best offense in baseball, as Otto Lopez leads all of baseball in hits and doubles and Heiberto Hernández has built on a strong rookie season, but they rank just 22nd since the All-Star break, a stretch in which they’ve gone 3-9. Miami’s rotation has remained consistent since the break, as Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, and Pérez form a solid top three, but its bullpen has collapsed to start the second half, pitching to just a 5.83 ERA. The Marlins will be a team to watch over the last few games before the trade deadline, as there’s a world in which Alcantara, Lopez, and their top relievers (John King and Michael Petersen) are all on the trade market and there’s a world in which they look to buy if they win this series.
New York will certainly be a selling team. The Mets also had a 12-game losing streak back in April, and despite some slightly improved form since the All-Star break (winning at least one game against each of the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Atlanta Braves, arguably the four best teams in the NL), their playoff hopes are just 0.6%. To be fair, New York has had the 12th-best offense since the All-Star break, but that doesn’t overshadow how disappointing its Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and Luis Robert Jr. acquisitions have been, and Juan Soto’s IL stint will definitely hurt. Additionally, the Mets’ pitching staff just hasn’t been up to snuff. Their rotation ranks just 20th in ERA, as offseason signing Freddy Peralta has been pretty disastrous and their best starter in the early part of the season, Clay Holmes, broke his leg in a freak accident. To be fair, New York has had a top-eight bullpen, as veterans Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and Huascar Brazobán have all been tremendous, but it’s likely that at least one of the three will be gone after the trade deadline.
Miami should have a decent chance of picking up its fourth straight win with Pérez on the mound. The former seventh-place finisher in Rookie of the Year voting missed the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and struggled somewhat in 2025, but he’s been quite sharp since returning from his latest injury on June 24, recording a 1.75 ERA across six starts. All in all, the Dominican has a lot of strengths, as he ranks in the 80th percentile in expected batting average. He also ranks in the top third in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, which should be an asset against a team that sits near the league average in all of those stats. Plus, while Pérez occasionally struggles with walks, the Mets already walk at a below-average rate as is and now have lost Soto, the man with arguably the greatest batting eye in MLB history. He does rank in just the 10th percentile in barrel rate, and New York has found the barrel at the seventh-highest frequency, but Soto accounts for more than one-seventh of his team’s barrels, so the Mets should be less dangerous than usual. The location splits are slightly against him, as he’s been a little worse on the road and New York a little better at home, but the last time he faced the Mets, he pitched 6.1 innings of one-run, two-hit ball.
McLean hasn’t been quite as spectacular as he was in his eight starts last season, when he pitched to a 2.06 ERA, but he’s still clearly New York’s most promising talent. Since a blow-up outing on June 24, he’s been exceptionally sharp, pitching to a 1.20 ERA across 30 innings and walking nine while striking out 36. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s somewhat better than Pérez, as he ranks in the 69th percentile in expected ERA and the 82nd percentile in pitching run value. He might give up a few too many walks, as he ranks below the league median in both chase and walk rate and the Marlins operate a pretty disciplined plate approach, but he has plenty of strengths. He’s been pretty good at inducing soft contact, and Miami doesn’t have a lot of pop as is. McLean has all the tools to be effective despite being performing significantly worse at home, and to his credit, he limited the Marlins to two hits and one run across five innings on May 31 at Citi Field.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (+109)
Despite McLean’s slight pitching edge over Pérez and the Mets’ strong bullpen, this game still feels like a relative toss-up without Soto, making the team at +109 better value.
Strong Lean: Eury Pérez 7+ Strikeouts (+156)
Pérez has struck out at least eight batters in three of his five games after his return from injury, so he’s clearly in pretty solid form. Although he only struck out two batters against the San Diego Padres, San Diego is a slightly better contact team than New York, especially without Soto.
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