In the loaded NL Central, every intra-divisional matchup carries extra stakes. That’s true going into tonight’s contest between the Pirates (55-54) and Reds (50-57). Pittsburgh has enjoyed a terrific 2026 campaign, looking to reach the postseason for the first time since 2015. That means taking care of business against lesser clubs such as Cincinnati. Can the home team pull off an upset at Great American Ball Park?
The Pirates are favorites (-115) over the Reds, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Reds pick, best bet today
- Pirates ML (-115): The Pirates, if nothing else, can mix and match out of the bullpen. Cincinnati doesn’t have the same level of flexibility, handing the ball to one of baseball’s worst hurlers in Lowder. Equipped with a far more dangerous lineup, Pittsburgh makes sense this evening.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction, preview
A bullpen day is on tap for the visitors, which is a scary thought for Pittsburgh fans. Opener Yohan Ramirez offers some stability though; he’s notched a 3.21 ERA over 56.0 innings this season. However, this Pirates squad as a whole owns the ninth-worst bullpen ERA (4.38) in baseball. A righty-heavy Reds batting order could struggle against an above-average arm to begin this contest. Following Ramirez is anyone’s guess, but Hunter Barco makes sense as a bulk reliever. Recently called up from Triple-A Indianapolis, he has a 4.89 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 50 strikeouts (9.8 K/9) in the minors this season. Control has been the 25-year-old’s biggest setback (4.7 BB/9).
Fortunately for the Pirates, their opponents tonight aren’t well-equipped to take advantage of shaky pitching. Cincinnati ranks 27th in runs scored (440), 30th in batting average (.229) and 27th in on-base percentage (.307). To boot, the club is striking out at a league-worst rate of 9.48 times per game. If there’s one thing the Reds do well, it’s hitting for power. They’ve clubbed 139 home runs this season, tied for fifth-most in the majors. Still, outside of Elly De La Cruz (125 wRC+) and Sal Stewart (112 wRC+), there isn’t much to brag about in this lineup.
It’ll be up to Rhett Lowder this evening for the Reds. Through 77.0 innings pitched (15 starts), he’s recorded a dismal 5.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (7.6 K/9). A brief look at the right-hander’s Savant page doesn’t inspire much confidence. He sits within the 20th percentile or worse in almost every key category. That includes xERA (5.61), xBA (.273), chase rate (26.3%), strikeout rate (18.4%), and barrel rate (9.7%). In short, Lowder hasn’t done anything right this season. Look no further than his last meeting with the Pirates, a 1.1-inning, eight-run disaster on May 2nd.
Lowder’s struggles are cause for concern against any team, especially against one of the sport’s most lethal lineups. The Pirates are averaging 5.17 runs per game, third-most in the majors. Granted, this group is slightly worse in that regard on the road (4.87). Still, regardless of the venue, this is an offense that demands respect. Four different hitters on the active roster have a wRC+ above 115 (min. 200 plate appearances). That’s without factoring in Esmerlyn Valdez, the newest star in the Steel City. Over his first 40 career games, the rookie is slashing .278/.374/.669 with a whopping 14 home runs. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.62 walks per game, sixth-most in baseball. That level of patience could pay dividends against Lowder (4.3 BB/9).
Best Bet: Pirates ML (-115)
Neither team should feel too confident on the mound tonight. With that being said, Lowder has been downright awful this season, including some notable struggles against Pittsburgh. In comparison, the Pirates should have more flexibility with a bullpen day against Cincinnati’s all-or-nothing lineup. Back the Buccos on the road tonight.
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