Chicago enters Sunday at 59-45 after winning the opening two games at PNC Park. Friday required 10 innings, but Saturday became an 11-0 demolition. The Cubs have outscored Pittsburgh 14-2 while collecting 22 hits and receiving 13 scoreless starter innings. Pittsburgh remains 53-52 despite producing 545 runs, one of baseball’s highest totals. That offense now faces a sweep without Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Endy Rodríguez, and Spencer Horwitz. Jameson Taillon meets former teammate Braxton Ashcraft in a matchup carrying substantial uncertainty on both sides. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Taillon’s 5.38 ERA receives no rescue from the advanced data. His 5.43 xERA, .354 xwOBA, and .514 xSLG allowed confirm sustained damage. Opponents have barreled 14.4% of their batted balls, nearly double the MLB rate. His 88.6 mph exit velocity appears ordinary, but hitters consistently elevate mistakes. Taillon has surrendered 31 barrels across only 215 batted balls. His six-pitch mix lacks a dependable finisher. Four-seamers comprise 28%, followed by cutters at 18.5%, sweepers at 16.8%, and changeups at 16.2%. Pittsburgh scored four runs and hit two homers against him across five innings May 27.
Taillon also remains inside a careful return from his left hamstring strain. Detroit reached him for four runs across 4.1 innings Monday, his first MLB appearance since June 7. He threw 75 pitches, struck out six, walked two, and allowed five hits. Chicago cannot reasonably project six innings Sunday. Ashcraft owns the deeper workload and better season, posting a 9-4 record, 3.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts. His 27% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, .292 xwOBA, and 3.55 xERA support his breakthrough. His 97 mph four-seamer sets up a curveball-slider combination comprising 48.9% of his pitches.
Ashcraft’s current direction creates the betting opportunity. Milwaukee and New York reached him for 12 earned runs and four homers across his last eight innings. The Yankees collected nine hits and eight total runs during his three-inning collapse Monday. His season-long 90.5 mph exit velocity and 42.3% hard-hit rate remain dangerous despite a manageable 6.7% barrel rate. Chicago already owns useful exposure to his shapes. Pete Crow-Armstrong is 4-for-9 with a 1.167 career OPS against him. Ashcraft has still posted a 2.42 ERA across five career appearances against Chicago, keeping the matchup from becoming a simple starter fade.
Crow-Armstrong enters after producing four hits, two doubles, three runs, three RBIs, one steal, and his 23rd homer Saturday. His season includes a .400 wOBA, .364 xwOBA, 90.1 mph exit velocity, 48.2% hard contact, and 11.4% barrels. Michael Busch added three hits Saturday and owns a .303 average with two homers across his last seven games. Seiya Suzuki carries a .266 average, 17 homers, 56 RBIs, and an .824 OPS. Pittsburgh answers with Bryan Reynolds, whose .358 xwOBA, 90.8 mph exit velocity, 46.2% hard contact, and 10.9% barrels remain excellent. Nick Gonzales leads Pittsburgh near .311, while Brandon Lowe owns 21 homers and 65 RBIs.
Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Pittsburgh’s injury-thinned lineup has scored twice across 19 innings this weekend. Its bullpen carries a 6.23 ERA over the last seven days and recently lost Evan Sisk. Newly acquired Ron Marinaccio arrived with a 4.79 ERA and nine homers allowed across 47 innings. Chicago’s bullpen owns a mediocre 4.26 ERA, but Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga protected it throughout this series. Javier Assad’s three-inning save Saturday kept every primary leverage arm untouched. PNC Park expects 84-degree weather with a light wind toward right field. Cory Blaser’s games have averaged only 7.5 runs, although neither starter deserves meaningful environmental protection.
Pittsburgh’s starting advantage explains its -131 price, but Ashcraft’s present form and bullpen weaken that edge. Chicago has scored 534 runs, averaging 5.13 per game, while creating multiple pressure points throughout its order. Taillon remains the obvious risk, especially against Pittsburgh’s right-handed power. However, Chicago holds the healthier lineup, fresher leverage bullpen, and stronger current contact. The Cubs need only a 47.8% win probability at +109. That is too low for a team positioned to finish the sweep.
Best bet: Cubs moneyline +109, playable through +100
Projected score: Cubs 6, Pirates 5
Best bet: Blue Jays (+120) at Red Sox
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