Who doesn’t love an underdog?
Betting on an underdog is the easiest way to get the most bang for your buck with a single wager, yet it’s always a somewhat risky endeavor. I mean, they’re underdogs for a reason, right? Still, there’s no sport where the underdog comes through more often than in baseball. It’s a 162-game season. Even the best teams are going to lose about 60 times a year.
With that in mind, let’s go looking for dogs this Friday night on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best MLB Underdog Bets, Picks
Padres ML (+113)
Friday’s slate starts a fresh set of series, for the most part, and in South Beach, the Marlins are looking to bounce back from three straight sweeps and nine straight losses as the Padres come to town. San Diego hasn’t been exactly setting the world on fire coming out of the break, getting just one win in Kansas City and one win in Atlanta, but they did come within one run in all three of their losses to the Braves. In contrast, the Marlins have lost five straight by multiple runs, losing by a score of 43-23.
The Marlins are the favorites since they’re at home going against German Marquez, who has been disappointing in his first year in San Diego with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. However, Marquez has actually been much better on the road, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his five road games. He has also been a little better in July, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his four starts for a 4.20 ERA–still not great, but definitely more serviceable.
The Marlins will counter with Ryan Gusto, who is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 3.79 FIP this season. He has been better at home than on the road, but he is much more of an opener than a true starter. The Marlins have lost four straight games he has started, and he has only totaled 9 1/3 innings during those four outings.
Astros ML (+109)
The Astros were the last team to sweep the Marlins, starting the week with an emphatic sweep with an aggregate score of 18-10. It was a good bounce-back after they lost five of six coming out of the All-Star break. The Astros are 50-54 and two games back of the Rangers in the AL West, and they’re one of several teams who could go either way at the trade deadline as either buyers or sellers. Houston is in Chicago this weekend to take on the White Sox, who lead the AL Central and have looked sharp, going 7-2 in their nine games since the All-Star break.
While the White Sox are the favorites, they aren’t necessarily invincible with Davis Martin on the mound. Martin had a decent outing after the break, working 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run to the Blue Jays, but he still took the loss. In fact, the White Sox have lost three straight starts for Martin and five of his last six outings. He has a 5.86 ERA and 4.95 FIP in those six games with 18 runs allowed and just 18 strikeouts in his 27 2/3 innings.
The Astros counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has also been inconsistent but shown upside. The 26-year-old righty has allowed just one run in two of his last three starts, although he was shelled for eight runs in the start in between those two good games. Arrighetti has held righties to a .194 batting average on the season, and his underlying metrics are mixed. The Astros have lost six straight Arrighetti starts, but there is a chance he’ll be good, though, and give his team a chance to hang in there against Martin.
While both starters have been a little shaky, the fact that the White Sox are home favorites shows how far they’ve come and how far the Astros’ stock has fallen. One big factor in Houston’s favor, though, is that they have a red-hot Yordan Alvarez in their lineup.
For the third option in Friday’s MLB underdog picks, let’s head to Minneapolis where the Athletics are visiting the Twins. The A’s have been in an awful slide over the past few weeks, but they’re in a favorable matchup against Zebby Matthews on Friday night. As I highlighted in my top MLB DFS stacks for the day, the A’s have several hitters who are rolling and can be very productive on Friday night. The team still has a young, potent offense, even without Nick Kurtz, and they bring good upside against the Twins in the series opener.
The A’s will counter Matthews with lefty Jacob Lopez, who doesn’t look much better at first glance. However, he has a 3.85 xERA that indicates his 6.64 ERA may not be as bad as it initially appears. Lopez went 1 2/3 hitless innings just before the All-Star break when he returned to the rotation after allowing just one run in 11 1/3 innings in two minor-league starts. He was also solid against the Nationals in his first start after the break, allowing two runs on two hits in 4 1/3 innings, while matching his season-high with six strikeouts.
While he isn’t a dominant starter, Lopez has a much better recent track record than Matthews, and the A’s boom-or-bust lineup gives the team a good chance to go off for a big total on their way to a win on Friday night. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring slugfest, which the Athletics have had plenty of experience in this year. With how bad Matthews has looked lately, I’m surprised he’s favored at all, never mind this heavy of a favorite. The A’s offer really nice value at these odds.
If you choose to stack the three MLB underdog picks in this post into a parlay, you can get juicy +892 odds if the three picks run the table. Since they do come with plenty of risk, though, it also makes sense to play them individually and as a round robin, so that if any two of the three hit, you’ll still secure some serious payouts.
