Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s loaded slate: Matt Olson, Justin Foscue and James Wood.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +371 | Olson comes into Tuesday’s action with 26 long balls to his name. He’s also in possession of a 93rd percentile expected slugging rate (.513) and a 92nd percentile hard hit rate (51.1%). Tonight, he’ll be looking to do some damage against the reeling Walker Buehler. The veteran RHP has been awful in July, pitching to a ghastly 16.36 ERA and allowing opponents to combine for an .800 slugging percentage and a .511 wOBA. |
| Justin Foscue | +500 | In Foscue’s 68 plate appearances against LHPs, the 27-year-old is slashing .322/.412/.678 with a .356 ISO and a 201 wRC+. This evening, he’ll face Noah Schultz, owner of a fourth percentile xERA (6.05) and an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.5%). |
| James Wood | +208 | Miles Mikolas against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field? Everyone in attendance might leave with a souvenir. Lorenzen has a 7.78 ERA in Colorado this season. He’s also been absolutely haunted by opposing LHBs, surrendering a .338/.404/.589 slash line within the split, along with 1.81 home runs per nine. Wood and his 100th percentile barrel rate (22.0%) should take advantage. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+371)
Olson somehow hasn’t reached the 30 home run plateau the past two seasons. I can almost guarantee that that won’t be the case in 2026. Olson comes into Tuesday’s action with 26 long balls to his name. He’s also in possession of a 93rd percentile expected slugging rate (.513) and a 92nd percentile hard hit rate (51.1%). He is, for all intents and purposes, the most dangerous hitter in the Braves lineup at the moment. Tonight, he’ll be looking to do some damage against the reeling Walker Buehler. The veteran RHP has been truly awful so far in July, pitching to a ghastly 16.36 ERA and allowing opponents to combine for an .800 slugging percentage and a .511 wOBA. Buehler’s given up six home runs in his last 11.0 innings of work. It’s been bleak.
Justin Foscue 1+ Home Run (+500)
It’s taken awhile for Foscue to get to this point. A former first-round pick of the Rangers in 2020, Foscue struggled in his brief cups of coffee with the team in 2024 and 2025. However, in 2026, Foscue has finally found his role on the roster. In fact, to be completely frank, he’s been one of the best platoon bats in the league this season. In Foscue’s 68 plate appearances against LHPs, the 27-year-old is slashing .322/.412/.678 with a .356 ISO and a 201 wRC+. He’s also recently taken over Texas’ leadoff spot when the club is facing a southpaw. So, who is tonight’s lefty? That would be rookie Noah Schultz, owner of a fourth percentile xERA (6.05) and an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.5%). I don’t expect Schultz will be the LHP that slows Foscue down.
James Wood 1+ Home Run (+208)
Before I opened the betting page for Nationals vs. Rockies, I said to myself “if James Wood’s odds are over 2/1, that’s an automatic bet.” Well, I’m a man of my word. So here we are. Let’s be honest, though. There was no way I wasn’t writing up a home run prop in this matchup. Miles Mikolas against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field? Everyone in attendance might leave with a souvenir. Lorenzen has a 7.78 ERA in Colorado this season. He’s also been absolutely haunted by opposing LHBs, surrendering a .338/.404/.589 slash line within the split, along with 1.81 home runs per nine. That’s bad news for a pitcher who is about to face Wood at least a couple of times, as Wood is a left-handed hitter with 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.425), barrel rate (22.0%) and hard hit rate (59.6%). The 23-year-old is a superstar.
