As we inch closer and closer to the MLB Trade Deadline, there might not be a more fascinating team than the Minnesota Twins.
Twins fans know all too well that the Pohlad family has been back and forth about selling the franchise, but whether or not they’ll want to sell players by August 3 is another story. Minnesota is two games below .500 entering play on Monday, yet its just four games back in the AL Central and two games back in the Wild Card hunt.
One of the teams in the Twins’ way of a postseason berth? The Guardians.
Let’s preview this important divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Guardians prediction, preview
What would the Twins even sell at the deadline? How about Joe Ryan, who they reportedly came very close to trading away at this time last season. The right-hander is still under team control until 2027, yet Ryan’s value has never been higher, especially in a market where so few teams are clearly throwing in the towel. Over 110.1 innings and 20 starts in 2026, Ryan owns a 2.85 ERA and a 2.77 FIP — the fifth-lowest qualified mark in baseball. Ryan’s also been amazing specifically across his past five starts prior to the All-Star break, registering a 1.93 ERA and a 2.42 FIP with a 30.5% strikeout rate. Ryan’s faced the Guardians once already this campaign, surrendering just a pair of hits in a six-inning effort back on May 9. Simply put, the 30-year-old is one of the sport’s best arms.
It’s not like I think Cleveland has a much better shot to tag Ryan this time around, either. The Guardians, as has often been the case the past decade, have really struggled to score runs in the past few weeks — an issue that has obviously not been aided by the continued absence of Jose Ramirez (hand). In the last 30 days, Cleveland sits 29th in expected wOBA (.283), 27th in ISO (.129) and 25th in wRC+ (86). That’s not to mention the club’s 27.0% strikeout rate in the same span, which is the second-highest mark in MLB. Woof.
Meanwhile, the Twins are red-hot with the bats. In fact, Minnesota has sort of become the platonic ideal for an offense: Good power potential mixed with high contact ability. Trevor Larnach and Luke Keaschall are on fire at the moment, while Kody Clemens and Josh Bell have provided sneaky pop in the middle of the lineup. Now, on Monday night, it’s expected that the Twins will welcome All-Star Byron Buxton back from the IL. Buxton hasn’t played since July 5, yet he’s already smashed 25 home runs so far this season. Buxton also possesses a 98th percentile barrel rate (18.7%). Needless to say, he’s a welcome addition to any roster.
Dealing with Buxton and the rest of Minnesota’s hitters will be Tanner Bibee. Despite a 3.90 ERA, it’s been a tough year for the 27-year-old right-hander. Bibee’s seen his strikeout rate fall to a career-low 19.0%. In turn, he’s giving up more home runs than he ever has before. In fact, since May 25, Bibee is surrendering a whopping 2.21 opponent long balls per nine. If it wasn’t for an unsustainably low .242 BABIP, Bibee’s surface numbers would be a whole lot worse — not that a 3-9 record is anything to write home about as it is.
Twins vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Twins ML (-130)
The Twins are only 11-9 in Ryan’s starts this season, so it’s not like his presence means an automatic win, yet he’s clearly got the advantage on Bibee, and the Guardians have been of the league’s worst offenses for over a month now. Side with the slight road favorites here.
Strong Lean: Joe Ryan 7+ Strikeouts (-131)
Ryan’s gone over or hit this prop in eight of his last 11 outings. Meanwhile, Cleveland owns the league’s second-highest strikeout rate over the past 30 days (27.0%).
