Saturday night gave us an electric matchup between these two team with tons of lead changes, a whole lot of hard-nosed defense, and a narrow Valkyries win at the end to extend their winning streak to nine games. They also moved to 6-0 all-time against the Mystics. Can Washington snap a pair of streaks on Monday, or will Golden State continue to roll?
The Valkyries enter as 8.5-point home favorites with -375 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics are +295 underdogs with the game total set at 145.5 points. Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Mystics-Valkyries matchup.
Mystics at Valkyries Prediction, Preview
Washington’s identity all season long has been defense. They do a great job limiting quality looks inside and outside the arc and finishing possessions at a high level on the boards. It’s impressive for such a young team to play such a cohesive brand of basketball on the defensive end of the floor, and it’s not only the efforts of one or two players. Sonia Citron, their leading scorer, has been excellent as a perimeter defender. Kiki Iriafen, their second-leading scorer, has put a real shift in on the glass while taking strides with her defense. It’s a great formula that has put them in a playoff position.
Unfortunately, the offense remains a problem. Washington is dead last in points per game, offensive rating, and turnovers, while being second-to-last in three-point percentage. The Mystics do get to the line more than any other team in the WNBA, but have the second-worst free-throw percentage. Other than Michaela Onyenwere, nobody is really bringing the efficiency, and it showed on Saturday night against Golden State’s elite defense. Washington shot 26% from deep and turned the ball over 14 times, a crucial difference in a five-point loss. If they want to exact their revenge, this team has to be better at taking care of the ball and knocking down open looks.
Golden State continued its romp on Saturday night, extending a franchise record with their ninth straight win. That victory kept them within one game of the Minnesota Lynx, the top overall seed in the league, and there’s no stopping them right now. The defense remains the best in the league, and they do so in a unique way. Golden State excels at running opponents off the three-point line, then creating tough shots and turnovers inside the paint. With a low turnover rate and a significant advantage from three-point range, the Valkyries continue to confound their opponents.
This matchup is about as close to a clash of stylistic twins as you could hope for. Both teams are defense-first and have significant weak points on offense. But the difference in those weaknesses is notable: Golden State is excellent beyond the arc and brutal inside the arc, while Washington is very much the opposite. The Valkyries also thrive at spacing the floor while eschewing true size, while the Mystics pack the paint with size. Don’t expect to see these teams getting out and running either: they’re 14th and 15th in the league in pace.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Mystics at Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
These games have low totals for a good reason. The lack of pace and offensive efficiency, combined with the struggles of their respective offenses, make for a real grind-it-out sort of contest. Even at this low total, the value is on the under. Though I expect the Valkyries to win, the spread didn’t cash last time around, and I don’t trust them to cover in what will be a real nasty affair.
