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Missouri State Bears vs. Texas A&M Aggies prediction, pick for College Football Week 1 on Saturday 9/5/26

Missouri State Bears vs. Texas A&M Aggies prediction, pick for College Football Week 1 on Saturday 9/5/26

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By: Keagan Smith

There’s a buzz in the air with college football back in action – it’s Week 1, baby! The Saturday slate is where the real fun begins with just about every program in the nation across the day.

The Texas A&M Aggies made it to the College Football Playoff last season as Mike Elko’s program finally looked to be bordering on elite. Now, they’re set to compete in a tough SEC once again; thankfully, the new campaign opens with a tune-up game against the Missouri State Bears, who just moved up to the FBS last year.

Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Texas A&M vs. Missouri State to open Week 1 of the 2026 college football season.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri State prediction, preview

A&M went 11-2 last season and 7-1 in the SEC, one of the best finished for the program in years. The Aggies lost 10 players to the NFL Draft, hardly a shock given the talent they deployed.

However, there’s reason to believe they’ve put pieces around returning quarterback Marcel Reed, who had 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns last year with another 493 and six on the ground. The trenches may be trouble after replacing four pro-caliber starters on the offensive line, but so long as the new names can perform, there are weapons to succeed. The headliner is wideout Mario Craver, who had 59 grabs for 917 yards and four scores last year. He’s joined by Alabama transfer Isaiah Horton, who caught eight touchdowns last year as a big-bodied receiver. Halfback Reuben Owens is back and an all-conference tight end was added, Houston Thomas. The defense was one of the nation’s best last season as well, and while that side lost some key talent, there’s quite a bit of talent – whether that be returning players or transfers. That unit should still be formidable moving forward.

Missouri State steps into a matchup that’s far beyond their caliber. Granted, a 7-6 record and 5-3 finish in Conference USA were hardly poor results for a team that was in its first season of FBS competition last year.

There’s a solid mix of returners and transfers on this roster. Transfer quarterback Skyler Locklear posted over 1,400 passing yards and 13 touchdowns through the air at UTEP last season, but also tossed 11 picks in that sample. Jmariyae Miller is the clear top target for him after amassing 632 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last year, and Jeron Askren caught five tuddies as a tight end. However, the remainder of the receiving corps hasn’t proven much, though halfback Ramone Green Jr. did average 5.3 yards per carry in a limited role during the 2025 campaign. The defense retained a little bit more talent but is working to integrate five new transfers after ranking 95th in points per game allowed last season with 30.3. Either way, stopping this A&M roster may be an impossible task.

Missouri State vs. Texas A&M pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas A&M enters as a 40.5-point favorite. The game total sits at 53.5 combined points between these teams.

There’s a reason the Aggies are the No. 8 team in the nation entering the season. While they lost plenty of standouts, they brought in just as many who should prove more than capable of playing their roles. Their quarterback was a Heisman candidate for a time last year and is back under center with a batch of weapons who should be able to make plays. The defense is likely to be good again, and anyways, Missouri State isn’t much of a challenge for them. In a game like this one, I’m fine with taking A&M by a lot.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -40.5 (-110)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.