Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s jam-packed slate: Ben Rice, Matt Olson and T.J. Rumfield.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | +314 | The 27-year-old enters the second-half of the regular season with 29 long balls and a 95th percentile expected wOBA (.381). Rice is also averaging a home run every 9.1 at-bats at Yankee Stadium. That’s bad news for Roki Sasaki, who has surrendered a whopping 3.86 opponent home runs per nine in his last four starts. |
| Matt Olson | +295 | Olson has 25 big flies at the break. His 94th percentile average exit velocity (92.9) and 91st percentile expected slugging rate (.512) suggest that pace won’t be slowing down any time soon. Nor does a matchup with Cal Quantrill, who from 2023 to 2025, owned the MLB’s highest qualified xERA (5.60). |
| T.J. Rumfield | +554 | Rumfield is slashing .336/.418/.603 with a 165 wRC+ against RHPs at Coors Field in 2026. Meanwhile, LHBs like Rumfield are mashing 2.29 home runs per nine off Brady Singer across his 18 starts. I doubt the altitude will help that flaw in Singer’s game. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Ben Rice 1+ Home Run (+314)
The Home Run Derby didn’t go as planned for Rice, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that the 27-year-old enters the second-half of the regular season with 29 long balls, a 95th percentile expected wOBA (.381) and a 94th percentile expected slugging rate (.519). Crucially, the Derby didn’t take place at Yankee Stadium, either, a setting where Rice is averaging a home run every 9.1 at-bats — just an absurd ratio. Rice also didn’t have Roki Sasaki throwing him pitches on Monday. It’s been an up-and-down campaign for the former NPB stud, and he clearly ended the first-half in a down. In Sasaki’s past four starts, the RHP has surrendered a whopping 3.86 opponent home runs per nine, along with a .690 slugging rate. Woof.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+295)
I just keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with Cal Quantrill. The former eighth-overall pick has been quite good with the Rangers, starting the season in the bullpen, then transitioning to the rotation in recent weeks, but we’re talking about someone who posted a 5.60 xERA from 2023 to 2025 — the highest qualified mark in the sport. At some point, that version of Quantrill is coming back, right? Let’s just say a fourth percentile strikeout rate (14.5%) and a 14th percentile ground ball rate (34.7%) are backing up my theory of regression. A matchup with the Braves and Matt Olson could be dangerous, too. After not breaking the 30 home run plateau the past two years, Olson has 25 big flies at the break. His 94th percentile average exit velocity (92.9) and 91st percentile expected slugging rate (.512) suggest that pace won’t be slowing down any time soon.
T.J. Rumfield 1+ Home Run (+554)
These odds seem a little too long, don’t they? While Rumfield isn’t exactly a household name, here’s what he’s slashing against RHPs at Coors Field in 2026: .336/.418/.603 with a 165 wRC+. Those are not the statistics of a man who should be overlooked in this market. It’s also important to note that the right-handed pitcher in question is Brady Singer. It’s been a rough go this season for Singer, who owns a ninth percentile xERA (5.51) and a fifth percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.2). The veteran’s biggest challenge? Left-handed opponents. Lefties are mashing 2.29 home runs per nine off Singer across his 18 starts. I don’t expect that dubious trend to change in the altitude of Denver.
