The second half of the MLB season promises a ton of excitement. As we prepare for a restart after the All-Star break, 23 of 30 teams are either in a playoff spot or within four games of climbing into one. The Astros are one such team, despite an extremely disappointing first half. Will Houston be able to pick things up and make it into the postseason? Or will they find themselves on the outside looking in?
First things first, let’s look at the odds for the American League playoffs on the DraftKings Sportsbook:
Houston currently sits in eighth out of the 15 American League teams. Currently, they are three games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West and 1.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot. Let’s get into how they got here and what Houston can do to close the gap over the last 64 games.
Season To Date
At the very least, the Houston Astros’ first half was an entertaining one, at least for a neutral fan. The Astros’ lineup produces 4.58 runs per game, a solidly above-average mark. But the pitching staff concedes a horrid 5.06 runs per game, the fifth-worst mark in the major leagues.
Of course, any discussion about the Houston lineup starts with Yordan Alvarez. The current AL MVP favorite leads the league in home runs and RBIs and is second in the batting title race. He very well may become the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera’s legendary 2012 season. His ability to carry the lineup has kept Houston in shouting distance of a playoff spot. But he’s not the only player swinging a good bat for the Astros; Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and Carlos Correa have all been solidly above average with the bat this season.
Unfortunately for Houston, availability has been a problem. Peña and Correa have combined to play only 83 of 196 possible games so far, with Correa out for the rest of the season. And the Astros’ middle infield depth has been sorely lacking behind those two. Father Time has finally come for Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz has regressed heavily, and 23-year-old Cam Smith is still struggling with consistency at the plate. It’s a heavy burden for Alvarez to carry this lineup.
The pitching staff is struggling with injuries as well. Hunter Brown has made only seven starts after a breakout 2025 season. Often injured, Lance McCullers Jr. was effectively salary-dumped to the Milwaukee Brewers over the All-Star break. Big offseason signing Tatsuya Imai has struggled mightily, walking 33 batters in only 52 innings along with a 6.06 ERA. Peter Lambert has filled in admirably in manager Joe Espada’s rotation. Still, it’s a major weakness threatening to derail their season.
At the very least, Houston boasts a solid bullpen trio between Josh Hader, Steven Okert, and Bryan King. Unfortunately for them, Bryan Abreu has fallen off a cliff; the star setup man has a 5.81 ERA this season after posting a 2.65 ERA over his first seven big-league seasons with the Astros. While the pen certainly isn’t the biggest problem they face, it could use some improvement.
So now we know how the Astros got here. What about where they are going?
Second Half Outlook
It’s something that can be said for any team, but especially for the Astros: health is wealth. Correa’s season is over, but Peña and Brown are back to their regular workloads and can make a massive difference down the stretch. If they can keep those two healthy without suffering any other major injuries, their playoff outlook improves significantly.
But that’s not all they need. The rotation is in serious need of an upgrade; other than Brown and Lambert, everyone can go. Imai certainly won’t be moving, considering his contract, but it’s high time to shift him to the bullpen. That’s three rotation spots for GM Dana Brown to play with. The problem is, Houston has one of the worst farm systems around, so finding good trade partners will take some creative dealing. It wouldn’t hurt to add a cheap arm or two to their struggling bullpen.
As for the lineup, the hope is that time will fix things. If healthy, they have one true superstar bat in Yordan and a few strong bats between Walker, Paredes, and Peña. Smith has a ton of upside, and a breakout second half would drastically alter their fortunes. Even if the bottom of the lineup remains rough, they have a lot of important defensive contributors that raise the floor of the team’s run prevention. It wouldn’t hurt to see them make an upgrade in left or center field over the next couple of weeks, and options are available there.
Ultimately, though the upside is there, too many obstacles are in Houston’s way for me to see value in their playoff odds. The Rangers and Mariners are better teams, plain and simple, and have more avenues to upgrade at the trade deadline. It’s also difficult to project a fall from the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race, and the Red Sox figuring things out makes their outlook even worse. It’s not a value to bet them at -250 to miss the postseason outright, nor am I confident enough to bet them at +210 to make it. The Astros are a strong “stay away” when it comes to making a playoff bet.
