Even when things are going relatively well for the 2026 Mets, disaster is just around the corner.
Allow me to set the scene. New York had already lost the first two contests in this rare Friday through Monday four-game series against the Braves. No worries, though. The Mets were up 10-3 heading the bottom of the ninth on Sunday. Surely the club would breeze to a much-needed easy win, right? …Right?! You clearly don’t know this franchise.
New York would eventually hang on and pick up the victory, but not before Atlanta stormed back for six runs. Just another day of being a Mets fan.
Will the Braves be able to ride that late momentum to a series win on Monday evening? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Braves prediction, preview
The Freddy Peralta situation is getting dark for the Mets. New York paid Milwaukee a hefty price for the All-Star right-hander this offseason, envisioning the soon-to-be free agent as a co-ace alongside Nolan McLean at the top of a playoff-bound rotation. Needless to say, things have not worked out as planned. After surrendering seven hits and five earned runs to the Blue Jays on Canada Day, Peralta’s ERA now sits at an inflated 4.81 for the season as a whole. In his last five outings specifically, Peralta sports an 8.49 ERA and just a 15.9% strikeout rate. It’s been quite the fall from grace for a pitcher who owned a 3.27 xERA from 2021 to 2025 — the fourth-lowest mark in that five-year stretch for any player with at least 500 innings thrown. Obviously, Peralta is no longer pitching for a chance at the postseason with the Mets, yet his recent struggles are tanking his value on the trade market. New York just can’t seem to win in 2026. Both on and off the field.
Monday will not be an easy matchup for Peralta, either. The Braves were horrendous with the bats during the month of June, sitting dead-last in ISO (.116), wOBA (.266) and wRC (64) among all 30 MLB clubs. However, Atlanta has already scored 28 runs in the opening three games of this series, and the 11 home runs that the team has hit so far in July are tied for the second-most in baseball. This lineup might still be without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), but newly named All-Stars Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin are still around, as is All-Star snub Michael Harris II, who finally appears to be re-capturing some of the magic of his rookie campaign. Over 319 plate appearances in 2026, Harris is slashing .302/.335/.505 with a 99th percentile expected batting average (.305).
Toeing the rubber for the Braves will be Reynaldo Lopez. It’s been a weird year for Lopez. After injuries limited the veteran RHP to just a single start in 2025, Lopez has bounced back and forth between Atlanta’s rotation and its bullpen in 2026. That said, Lopez is on the heels of probably his best outing of the season on July 1 versus the Cardinals, allowing only two hits and one earned run over five frames. The 32-year-old only threw 69 pitches in that contest — and he’s exceeded the 80-pitch plateau once all year — so longevity isn’t really in the cards for Lopez on Monday. The Braves would be gleeful for another solid, five-inning performance.
Mets vs. Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-143)
While both of these lineups struggled throughout June, the scoreboard has been lighting up in this series. Freddy Peralta sports an 8.49 ERA over his last five starts, while Reynaldo Lopez is still transitioning back to the role of a starter.
Strong Lean: Reynaldo Lopez Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+116)
I’m a little shocked this is at plus-money. Lopez pitched five innings in his last start, but he left after throwing 69 pitches. He’s not fully built up. Meanwhile, the Mets actually own the National League’s top expected wOBA over the past two weeks (.338). This isn’t an easy matchup.
