Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s condensed slate: James Wood and Gavin Sheets.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood | +250 | Wood comes into today’s tilt with the Astros in possession of 100th percentile marks in average exit velocity (95.2), expected slugging (.603) and barrel rate (22.6%). He’s also hit a home run in three of his last six games. Now he’ll get to face Mike Burrows. Lefties are slashing .317/.392/.569 with a .414 wOBA off Burrows in 2026. |
| Gavin Sheets | +469 | The 105 lefties that Brandon Pfaadt has faced at the MLB level in 2026 have combined to smash 2.74 home runs per nine with a .593 slugging percentage. Sheets has registered a .255 ISO and a 131 wRC+ in his 240 plate appearances against RHPs. That includes all 14 long balls he’s hit this season. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
James Wood 1+ Home Run (+250)
If you wanted to back James Wood to hit a home run every single night, I wouldn’t blame you. The man is having one heck of a season. To wit, Wood comes into today’s tilt with the Astros in possession of 100th percentile marks in average exit velocity (95.2), expected slugging (.603) and barrel rate (22.6%). Don’t fret if you’re into the more old school statistics, either, as Wood has managed to hit a home run in three of his last six games, giving him 23 for the year across 425 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, he’s on pace to smash his current career-high for long balls. This isn’t solely about Wood, though. Let’s not overlook the presence of Mike Burrows, who has simply been haunted by opposing LHBs in 2026. Lefties are slashing .317/.392/.569 with a .414 wOBA off Burrows. That’s translated into a hefty 2.40 home runs per nine within the split.
Gavin Sheets 1+ Home Run (+469)
Speaking of pitchers who have been completely unable to consistently retire LHBs in 2026, Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for the Diamondbacks this evening in San Diego. The sample size isn’t as large, as Pfaadt was pitching out of the bullpen for most of the season, then was demoted to Triple-A in June to get built back up as a starter. Still, the 105 lefties that the 27-year-old has faced at the MLB level have combined to smash 2.74 home runs per nine with a .593 slugging percentage. Not ideal if you’re Arizona’s coaching staff. Now, the Padres aren’t exactly blessed with fantastic left-handed hitting options — especially with the type of campaigns that Jake Cronenworth (+750) and Jackson Merrill (+505) are having. That pretty much just leaves Gavin Sheets. To his credit, Sheets has done his job as a platoon bat, registering a .255 ISO and a 131 wRC+ in his 240 plate appearances against RHPs. That includes all 14 long balls he’s hit this season.
