Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
| NRFI Bet Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
| Yankees at Rays | -130 | This pick is all about the starting pitchers. Griffin Jax (75% NRFI rate) and Cam Schlittler (88.9% NRFI rate) have both been great this season in the first inning. |
| Brewers at Cardinals | -115 | Busch Stadium has the fourth-highest NRFI rate this season. Despite some injury issues, Dustin May has dominated at times this season, including his first game vs. MIL. On the other side, Shane Drohan has allowed a first-inning run just once this season. |
| Diamondbacks at Padres | -105 | The Padres have the highest NRFI rate in the MLB by a wide margin and Petco Park has the second-highest NRFI rate of regularly used stadiums. Both SP have solid form, and these odds feel like strong value. |
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-130)
This AL East matchup at the Trop features Griffin Jax on the mound for the Rays against Cam Schlittler for the Yankees. Both starters have impressed this season, and this should be a pitcher’s duel to start off the series. Jax has allowed a first-inning run in only three of his 12 starts this season, for a 75% NRFI rate, and Schlittler has spun 16 scoreless frames in his 18 starts, for a slate-leading 88.9% NRFI rate.
Jax will get the ball first and look to quiet a powerful Yankees lineup. He is 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 4.61 FIP in his 23 games this season and has been effective since moving to the starting rotation at the end of April. He had one bad outing at home against Detroit, but other than that has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 12 starts, including each of his last five. Jax earned a pair of holds against the Yankees out of the bullpen earlier this season but will be making his first start against them this year.
Schlittler will be making his second start of the season against the Rays, with the first coming back on April 12. He gave up a run in the first inning of that game, but he has only allowed a first-inning run in one of his 17 other starts. The only other time he gave up a run in the first inning was in his last start, when he gave up four runs (and three home runs) in the first inning to the Tigers. Shlittler had been rolling before that rough outing, allowing just two earned runs in his previous four starts, while racking up 34 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings.
In what is sure to be a high-intensity series in Tampa, both starters will look to set the tone early and dominate right out of the box. Overall, this has a good chance to be a very low-scoring game, and both pitchers have done a good job spinning blank frames in the first.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115)
In another divisional match, the Brew Crew heads to Busch Stadium to face the Cardinals. Both teams are above the league average at NRFI rate this season, with the Cardinals ranking in the top five in the MLB. At home, they have the fourth-highest NRFI in the majors. On Monday, they’ll give the ball to Dustin May, while the Brewers counter with Shane Drohan.
May has a two-game streak of allowing runs in the first inning and has allowed runs in the first inning of seven of his 16 starts this season, putting him below the league average for NRFI. However, before his last two rocky outings, he had turned in nine quality starts in 12 appearances, racking up a 2.54 ERA and 2.69 FIP. The Royals and Braves got to him on the road in his last two outings, and he was forced to leave his last start in the first inning after a comebacker hit him on the ankle. That start had already been pushed back due to back tightness, so he’s dealing with a few injury concerns coming into this last start before the All-Star break.
When he’s at his best, though, May has been impressive this season. He spun a complete-game, one-hitter against the Padres in his last home start and has pitched a clean first inning in six of his eight home starts this season. He held the Brewers scoreless in the first inning on May 27, when he allowed just two runs in 7+ innings of work.
May will be opposed by lefty Shane Drohan, who has allowed a first-inning run in just one of his seven starts this season. May has a four-game NRFI streak coming into this matchup in St. Louis, and he has only allowed three total runs in his last three starts, posting a 1.80 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 15 innings in those three outings. Even if he isn’t able to sustain quite that level of success, he has a good chance to extend his NRFI streak to five as he faces the Cardinals Monday night.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-105)
Let’s keep it all divisional this Monday and attack this NL West matchup for the final game in our NRFI props. The Dbacks are in San Diego to face the Padres at Petco Park, and on Monday, the pitching matchup will be Walker Buehler against Brandon Pfaadt.
Buehler has an 82.3% NRFI rate this season, allowing a first-inning run only three times in his 17 starts. He was pummeled by the Cubs for nine runs in his last outing at Wrigley, but he had allowed exactly one run in each of his five previous outings, including tough matchups against his former teams the Dodgers and Phillies. He had a 1.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in those five starts and will look to return to that form in his first start of the year against Arizona.
The D-backs just moved Pfaadt back to the rotation, but he had a strong start against the Giants last week, allowing just one run on three hits over five innings. He struggled out of the bullpen earlier this season, but he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in his three starts in Triple-A with Reno while he was stretching out to move back to his role as a starter. He has not allowed a first-inning run in three of his four starts this season.
The Padres have the highest NRFI rate of any team in the majors at 65.9%, with a sizeable lead over the team in second place, which is the Cubs at 58.4%. Petco Park has the second-highest NRFI rate of any regularly used stadium this season at 65.1%. With Pfaadt and Buehler both in decent form, this is a solid spot for value at almost even money this Monday night.
