San Diego enters Sunday trying to stop a rivalry week from becoming a full collapse. The Padres are 43-45, 20-24 away, and buried in an eight-game skid. Los Angeles is 59-31, 29-14 at home, and 10-2 since June 22. The Dodgers are also 7-2 against San Diego this season. This series has been ruthless. San Diego blew a 6-0 lead Thursday, lost on Teoscar Hernández’s grand slam Friday, then got shut out Saturday. Fernando Tatis Jr. had two of San Diego’s four hits in that 3-0 loss. The rest of the lineup offered almost nothing against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
JP Sears is the pressure point for San Diego. His MLB line sits at 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, nine strikeouts, five walks, and four homers allowed across 10 1/3 innings. His Triple-A line adds more concern after a 7.92 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 89 hits, 28 walks, and 10 homers allowed across 63 2/3 innings. The contact profile is even louder. Sears has allowed a .415 xwOBA, .593 xSLG, 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 47.2% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrels, and 20.1-degree launch angle. He is also giving up 47.2% fly balls and 27.8% pulled air contact.
Emmet Sheehan brings volatility, but his deeper profile keeps the Dodgers in a better pitching position. His surface line includes a 5.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 81 strikeouts, 22 walks, and 15 homers allowed over 72 2/3 innings. The expected contact reads cleaner, with a .314 xwOBA allowed, 39.1% hard-hit rate, 10.4% barrels, and 26.1% strikeout rate. Sheehan’s four-seamer and slider give him a direct path against San Diego’s right-handed core. He also held the Padres to one run over five innings last Sunday. That recent look matters with San Diego pressing through empty rallies and bad counts.
The Dodgers’ top six has enough damage to attack Sears quickly. Shohei Ohtani returns as the leadoff DH after missing Saturday with right biceps tightness. He carries a 93.6 mph average exit velocity, 52.4% hard-hit rate, 15.9% barrels, .394 wOBA, and .409 xwOBA. Freddie Freeman adds the current-form hammer after Saturday’s homer and a 19-game on-base streak. His profile sits at 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 46.3% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrels, .388 wOBA, and .392 xwOBA. Andy Pages brings RBI volume, Mookie Betts lengthens innings, and Hernández fits the lefty-damage lane after Friday’s grand slam.
Dodgers vs. Padres pick, best bet
San Diego still has enough individual danger to avoid a blind fade. Tatis owns the best Padres profile, with 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 53.0% hard-hit rate, 11.2% barrels, and a .353 xwOBA. Manny Machado has 17 homers and 48 RBI, even with a thin average. Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets give Sheehan left-handed damage concerns if his fastball leaks. The team-wide offense remains the problem. San Diego ranks near the bottom of MLB in runs, hits, average, OBP, slugging, and OPS. The Padres have speed, but speed only helps after traffic appears. This lineup has not stacked enough traffic.
The late-game layer separates the bet. The Dodgers’ bullpen enters in much better current shape, with a 3.18 ERA over the previous seven days. Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer, Will Klein, and Edgardo Henriquez all give Los Angeles usable leverage. San Diego still has Mason Miller, but its bridge has taken heavy work and recent damage. Wandy Peralta, Kyle Hart, Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui, and Ron Marinaccio have all carried recent stress. Miller can protect a lead late. He cannot erase a Sears deficit before the eighth. Warm early weather helps the Dodgers’ contact, then cooler late air supports bullpen control.
The best bet is Dodgers -1.5 at -114, playable to -120. The moneyline is too expensive, and the team total needs six runs from a lighter bottom third.
Projected score: Dodgers 6, Padres 3.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-115) at Padres
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