Is there anything better than Independence Day baseball? Tonight, the MLB slate closes out the holiday with some fireworks as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Yoshinobu Yamamoto host the San Diego Padres and Wandy Peralta. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Padres vs. Dodgers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
San Diego Padres
The visitors are mired in the MLB’s longest active losing streak after dropping seven straight matchups. Now, they’ve dipped to 43-44 as we’re seeing more of what this team really is, and a -42 run differential proves it. The Padres’ offense produces just 3.94 runs per game, the fewest in baseball. That’s no surprise when they slash .225/.301/375 for a .676 OPS that falls second-to-last. A .150 ISO is perfectly fine and the 93 homers are respectable, even on the lower end. Even a 9.0% BB% and a 22.8% K% aren’t bad; they just can’t overcome such a poor slash line and an MLB-worst .268 BABIP. If it’s any consolation, the bats are slightly better against right-handers like they face tonight with a .222/.302/.377 line for a .679 cumulative mark, plus the overall OPS is .790 in the last two weeks.
LHP Wandy Peralta comes out of the bullpen to start with 38 games under his belt, three of which were technically starts. He’s not likely to go more than two innings but brings a strong 2.38 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and 30 strikeouts across 45.1 IP this year. The bullpen backing him is quite good with a 3.72 ERA that ranks ninth, plus a 1.31 WHIP and 14.1% K-BB%.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers still hold sole possession of the MLB’s best record at 58-31 and are 8-2 over their own last 10 outings. The overall run differential is +163 on the year and they’re averaging 5.37 runs a night. The club paces the sport in OPS at .792 via a .266/.349/.444 slash line, also sitting third in ISO at .178 with 121 home runs. Los Angeles also maintains an excellent 10.6% BB% with a low 20.2% K%, so the plate process looks fantastic and is a major asset. Facing a left-handed pitcher means the worse side of the splits, but the Dodgers still slash .251/.336/.425 for a .761 OPS against southpaws.
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his 16th start tonight after going 8-5 thus far. He’s got a 2.67 ERA, an 0.89 WHIP and 90 strikeouts across 97.2 IP. The Dodgers’ bullpen also falls 10th in ERA at 3.74, also amassing a 1.22 WHIP with a 15.5% K-BB%.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -274 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Padres are underdogs with +220 odds to win outright. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs.
Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-127)
It’s not a flashy pick, but I do like the Dodgers to cover the run line in this spot. They have a far superior offense in literally every aspect possible, and when it comes to pitching, they also have the edge with a legitimate stud on the mount rather than a bullpen game. I expect their bats to show up big time with a handful of big hits while Yamamoto shuts the opposing side down. In two starts against San Diego so far this year, he’s gone 7.0 innings with one earned run allowed and eight strikeouts, then 6.0 innings with two earned runs allowed. He’s done his job well and had a WHIP below 1.00 in both of those, and given the disparity between he and the other arms, I’m confident in L.A. tonight.
