After a horrendous start to the season, the Houston Astros are creeping closer and closer to the .500 mark. Last night, a Yordan Alvarez grand slam in the later stages propelled them to a win over the Minnesota Twins, who they face off with again tonight to close out this three-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Twins vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Astros prediction, preview
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are on the outside looking in at the AL Wild Card at 41-46, also placing them third in the AL Central. They went 14-13 last month, but the run differential still comes in at -31 on the heels of one of the sport’s worst pitching staffs. The offense certainly isn’t a problem though, clocking in with 4.84 runs per game and a .731 OPS that ranks 11th in the MLB. The club slashes .247/.321/.411 with a .164 ISO that ranks seventh, plus 107 homers. There’s plenty of pop to these bats, and an 8.6% BB% and a 21.4% K%, are both respectable marks overall. They also get a matchup against a right-hander tonight after slashing .256/.322/.436 for a .758 OPS in the split, making the Twins one of the best teams in baseball against righties.
RHP Taj Bradley starts tonight after going 6-3 in his 15 appearances this year. He’s been quite sound overall with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 83.2.1 IP. He brings good velocity himself, but gives up a ton of hard hits with third-percentile average exit velo. Behind him is arguably the MLB’s worst bullpen, which falls dead last in ERA at 5.43 with a 1.56 WHIP and an 8.5% K-BB%.
Houston Astros
The Twins took the first game of this series to put a slight damper on Houston’s recent form, but the Astros went 16-11 in June for their second straight month with a winning record. They’re still third in the AL West at 43-45, but there’s a clear pathway to compete for a Wild Card spot, even with a run differential of -41. They post 4.51 runs a night and have a .726 OPS that ranks 12th in the MLB. That comes via a .241/.316/.410 slash line, also including a .169 ISO that’s ticked to fifth and 116 home runs. The Astros also bring an 8.8% BB% with a 21.7% K%. Facing a right-hander tonight, that slash line appears almost identical to their overall mark at .243/.319/.409 for a .728 OPS as well.
It’s RHP Tatsuya Imai as the starter with a 5-3 record in 11 outings. He began the year in very poor form as he adjusted to the MLB, but now has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and 58 strikeouts across 47.0 IP. His whiff and strikeout rates are great, and he seems to be finding his form. The Astros’ bullpen has improved to 19th in ERA at 4.35 this year, but finished June third in the stat at 2.57 with a 1.10 WHIP and 17.6% K-BB%.
Twins vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -144 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Twins are underdogs with +119 odds to win outright. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Astros over 4.5 total runs (+100)
At even odds, this team total looks like great value in this outing. While it’s true Bradley has pitched pretty well at times, his recent form isn’t the greatest. Over his last five starts, all of which came in June, he allowed four or more earned runs in three of those, plus in one more which came in May. Over his last four outings alone, he’s given up six homers as well. Against Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and some other bats with pop, a 16th-percentile grade or worse in barrel rate, exit velo and hard-hit rate could spell trouble. Even once he sits, this bullpen remains pretty abysmal. Despite Jeremy Pena hitting the IL, Houston still has some very good bats and should be able to put at least five runs on the board at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.
