Milwaukee enters American Family Field at 52-31, first in the NL Central, and still making Cincinnati wear this matchup. The Reds are 39-45, fifth in the division, and already down two games in this series. Milwaukee has won every meeting this season and 50 of the last 69 against Cincinnati. The latest beating came Tuesday, when the Brewers turned 14 hits into a 7-2 win. They opened the fourth inning with five straight singles, forcing Cincinnati into another breathless defensive inning. Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick each had three hits. Jackson Chourio homered again, giving Milwaukee another top-order spark in a month-long surge. The Brewers have won seven of nine overall, and this series has followed a familiar divisional script. Cincinnati gets early resistance, then Milwaukee’s depth, speed, and bullpen squeeze the game into submission. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Brewers vs. Reds prediction, preview
Shane Drohan gives Milwaukee the stronger current starter profile, even with some workload caution attached. He enters with a 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 52 strikeouts, 17 walks, and four homers allowed across 52 innings. His advanced indicators support the run prevention: 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, 0.69 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP. The contact profile also travels cleanly, with an 87.6 mph average exit velocity, 35.8% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, .230 xBA, .352 xSLG, and .285 xwOBA. Drohan’s four-seamer has held hitters to a .146 average and .229 slugging mark. His slider has been even sharper, allowing a .216 average, .294 slugging mark, and .231 xwOBA. Cincinnati did push him to 98 pitches across 4.1 scoreless innings last week. That keeps the handicap tilted toward Milwaukee’s full-game edge instead of a shorter starter-only angle.
Andrew Abbott carries a much shakier foundation than his 3.90 ERA suggests. He has allowed 87 hits, 40 walks, and 15 homers across 90 innings, producing a 1.41 WHIP. His 17.9% strikeout rate leaves too many balls in play. His 10.3% walk rate creates the extra baserunner Milwaukee loves to turn into chaos. The deeper numbers get louder: 1.50 HR/9, 39.9% ground-ball rate, 5.05 FIP, 4.82 xFIP, 4.84 xERA, .263 xBA, .435 xSLG, and .339 xwOBA. Abbott has also allowed a 90.0 mph average exit velocity, 39.5% hard-hit rate, 7.9% barrel rate, and 17.2-degree launch angle. His four-seamer has been especially vulnerable, giving up a .269 average, .463 slugging mark, .386 wOBA, .314 xBA, .539 xSLG, and .415 xwOBA. Milwaukee has already punished this shape. Abbott owns a 5.23 ERA at American Family Field against the Brewers, and Chourio has two homers in seven at-bats against him.
The Brewers’ lineup has enough different stress points to make Abbott work from the first inning. Chourio hit .319 in June with 10 homers, seven doubles, and 25 RBI. His season line now sits at 12 HR, .295/.349/.533, .238 ISO, .378 wOBA, and 142 wRC+. William Contreras gives Milwaukee another right-handed stabilizer with a .297/.362/.426 slash and 119 wRC+. Brice Turang adds a .360 OBP, 12 homers, 13 steals, and enough bat-to-ball skill to lengthen every inning. Bauers brings the bigger middle-order damage with 15 homers, a .272/.377/.508 line, .236 ISO, .382 wOBA, and 144 wRC+. Frelick supplies the connective tissue. He went 9-for-18 during his six-game hitting streak and raised his average with a scorching June. Joey Ortiz and the lower third also played into Tuesday’s rally, which is the piece Cincinnati cannot match. Milwaukee can win with Chourio thunder, Bauers pull-side lift, Contreras traffic, Turang speed, or Frelick’s line-drive persistence.
Reds vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Cincinnati’s best case runs through a dangerous, front-loaded pocket. Elly De La Cruz brings a .270/.339/.490 slash, 13 homers, a .220 ISO, and enough speed to warp any inning. Sal Stewart owns 16 homers, 19 doubles, 59 RBI, and just homered and doubled Tuesday. JJ Bleday adds a .238/.347/.495 line, .257 ISO, and 126 wRC+. Brandon Lowe gives Cincinnati another left-handed damage bat if he starts, with a .253/.343/.473 slash and .816 OPS. That top half can punish Drohan’s sinker, which has allowed a .327 average, .571 slugging mark, and .408 wOBA. The full lineup still carries too much swing-and-miss and too little on-base stability. Cincinnati is hitting .227 with a .309 OBP, .389 slugging mark, and 24.9% strikeout rate. Dane Myers going to the IL also trims the Reds’ outfield depth after his wall collision. Cincinnati can land a punch, but Milwaukee owns more ways to build a nine-inning lead.
The bullpen gap gives Milwaukee the cleaner market path. Cincinnati needed Ferguson and Julian Garcia after Rhett Lowder allowed six runs, 11 hits, and one walk Tuesday. Garcia threw 35 pitches and still surrendered Chourio’s late homer. Monday also drained Cincinnati after Lodolo needed 96 pitches and the bullpen lost a 3-0 lead. The Reds’ staff sits at a 4.62 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .251 opponent average. Milwaukee’s staff owns a 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .219 opponent average. The Brewers also got 3.2 scoreless relief innings Tuesday from Chad Patrick, Jared Koenig, and Grant Anderson. Roof status can influence the team-total ladder, especially with Milwaukee still dealing with heavy heat. The side survives either roof outcome because Abbott’s command, contact profile, and bullpen exposure create several Brewers scoring paths.
The best bet is Brewers -1.5 (+128), playable to +115. The top alternate is Brewers team total over 5.5 (+125).
Projected score: Brewers 6, Reds 3.
Best bet: Brewers -1.5 (+130) vs. Reds
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