A four-game series between a couple of teams vying for NL postseason berths continues this evening at Citizens Bank Park. So far, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games with at least eight runs in each. Scoring may be down tonight though, especially with two elite arms on the mound as Paul Skenes duels against Zack Wheeler. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Pirates vs. Phillies matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates remain fourth in the NL Central at 43-43 overall this year, largely due to a cold June in which they went just 11-15. There’s no reason to panic, especially with the run differential still positive at +24. However, the pitching staff will need to get back in gear since Pittsburgh’s bats produced an .801 OPS last month that ranked third in the entire MLB. The club’s 5.12 runs per game are fourth most and they rank second in OPS on the year at .754, slashing .258/.336/.418 overall. The Pirates’ power is quite solid with 108 homers and a .160 ISO, and while a 24.0% K% is fourth highest in the sport, a 9.5% BB% does help balance it out a little bit. Overall, this is a very productive lineup that also gets the better of its splits against a right-hander tonight after amassing a .783 OPS via a .265/.349/.435 line against such pitchers this year.
For the Pirates, RHP Paul Skenes is 6-7 across his 17 outings. He’s still been one of the league’s top arms this year, but a 3.10 ERA is a significant step back compared to his past precedent, even with an 0.97 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 93.0 IP. Skenes’ 30.6% K% is elite, as is a 5.4% BB%; his velocity is down a tick from last year though. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has an ERA of 4.44 that ranks 23rd, a 1.40 WHIP and a 12.5% K-BB%.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies began the season in terrible fashion, but after settling in with interim manager Don Mattingly, they’re now 48-38 on the year at second in the NL East. This surge has been somewhat improbable, but after going 18-9 last month and showing much better performance at the plate, there are plenty of positives. Philadelphia averages 4.45 runs per game and is 22nd in OPS on the year at .706 via a .237/.303/.403 slash line. However, the OPS jumped to .778 in June with 153 runs in 27 games, second most of any club. These bats are hot, and they were already one of the best slugging lineups in baseball with a .166 ISO that ranks sixth and 114 home runs. The Phils have a 23.3% K% that sits seventh highest with a 7.8% BB%, so there is admittedly a little left to be desired with the overall approach at the plate. Given recent successes though, that matters much less, and they get the better of their splits against a RHP after slashing .244/.305/.417 against such arms for a .722 OPS.
RHP Zack Wheeler has an 8-1 record and makes his 13th start of the year. He brings a 2.03 ERA, a miniscule 0.86 WHIP and 74 strikeouts across 75.1 IP. He’s been excellent this season, generating plenty of chases while limiting exit velocity. The Phillies’ bullpen is elite, garnering a 4.04 ERA that ranks 15th with a 1.30 WHIP and an MLB-best 17.9% K-BB%.
Pirates vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -144 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Pirates are road underdogs with +119 odds to win outright. The total sits at eight combined runs this evening.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler four or fewer combined earned runs allowed (-120)
Even with two of the hottest-hitting lineups in baseball in the picture at the moment, this feels like a matchup in which the starting pitching should win out. Both of the hurlers are top arms in this league who have excelled at run suppression this year. Even with Skenes underperforming compared to what we’ve seen in the last couple of years, he’s still doing quite well and has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts since June. Wheeler has also done the same in his last five outings since June as well, only allowing three or more earned runs in two of his 12 total games this year. Given the quality of starters in this matchup and that they’re both elite talents, this combo prop for four or fewer earned runs makes a ton of sense tonight.
