The Liberty are hosting the Aces on Tuesday for the Commissioner’s Cup Final. The winning team will take home a share of the $500,000 prize pool with each player on the winning squad claiming around $30,000.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 173.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Liberty vs. Aces Preview
The Liberty and Aces meet in the Commissioner’s Cup Final on Tuesday night in New York after these clubs just met for the first time this season last Tuesday in Las Vegas. In that matchup, the Liberty took down the Aces on their home floor, 87-76. Breanna Stewart led New York with 20 points and Sabrina Ionescu had her best showing of the season, posting 16 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.
In the loss for Las Vegas, Jackie Young finished with 19 points and seven assists, but reigning MVP A’ja Wilson was held to a season-low 16 points on 7-of-18 shooting, which was the difference in the game. Now, Wilson will shockingly be out for this Commissioner’s Cup Final with a leg injury, which will be just her first missed game of the season. The veteran has been the WNBA’s top player yet again this season, leading the league with 25.7 PPG on 52.4% shooting, so Wilson’s absence completely changes this contest.
These rivals have had similar results this season. The Liberty are 12-8 and rank fourth in net rating while the Aces are 14-5 and rank fifth in net rating. Since these clubs went head-to-head last week, New York has lost two in a row while Las Vegas has won two in a row. However, this is all irrelevant given the news of Wilson being out.
The four-time MVP leads the Aces in plus/minus and the team’s splits with her on and off the floor are very dramatic. With Wilson on the floor, Las Vegas owns a 10.0 net rating, whereas with her off the floor, the team’s net rating plummets to -12.0. As previously mentioned, Wilson hasn’t missed a game this season, but in the four games she missed last season, the Aces went 1-3.
One of Cheyenne Parker-Tyus or Brianna Turner should start at center in place of Wilson, but nonetheless, both players are going to see expanded roles in the frontcourt in her absence. More importantly, Young, NaLyssa Smith and Sixth Player of the Year candidate Chennedy Carter are all going to see much more usage with Wilson out. Carter just returned from a five-game absence due to an illness this past Sunday and Las Vegas will desperately need her to provide offense tonight. With Wilson off the court this season, Carter leads Las Vegas with a huge 34.9% usage rate.
The Aces are an outstanding 9-2 on the road this season and while Carter, Young and Smith are likely to put up strong numbers, them overcoming Wilson’s absence to defeat this experienced Liberty team on their home floor is a big ask, even though New York is dealing with its own issues.
The Liberty are coming off losses to the Storm and Valkyries, and Satou Sabally is out indefinitely, as she is in concussion protocol. Tonight will be the veteran’s third missed game in a row and she has been visibly missed in these past two losses. Another issue is Ionescu has been a shell of herself this season, as she works her way back from foot and back injuries. Ionescu is averaging 9.5 PPG while shooting 35% from the field and 27% on three-pointers, all of which are career lows. Before this season, she had averaged 17+ PPG for four consecutive seasons.
That being said, Ionescu did have her best game of the season when the Liberty beat the Aces last week and this was with Wilson in the lineup for Las Vegas. The Aces’ defense is likely to be a mess with Wilson missing and Ionescu and Stewart should have their way in this spot. Stewart is having another terrific season, averaging 19.2 PPG on 44% shooting, and the two-time MVP should dominate this Wilson-less Aces team inside.
Liberty vs. Aces Pick, Best Bet
While the Liberty have been rusty recently, they should be able to get the job done against this Aces team that should be discombobulated with Wilson out.
New York should win this game and I like backing the Liberty for over their 90.5-point team total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Las Vegas’ defense should be very vulnerable with Wilson missing and this number is just too low for the Liberty in this situation.
