In the top-heavy National League, the Brewers (38-23) are among the Senior Circuit’s best clubs. After eking out a two-run win on Friday, Milwaukee can now clinch this weekend’s series with ace Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. Can the last place Rockies (24-40) keep things close tonight?
The Brewers are favorites (-273) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 10.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Milwaukee and Colorado on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Rockies pick, best bet
- Brewers -2.5 (-121): Milwaukee has Misiorowski on the mound, which is already enough to expect a blowout. Factor in a lackluster Colorado pitching staff, and it’s difficult to envision the Rockies hanging around in this one.
Brewers vs. Rockies prediction, preview
The conversation for Milwaukee tonight starts and ends with Jacob Misiorowski. In the span of just over a year, the second-year pro is already one of baseball’s best pitchers. Through 71.0 innings of work, he’s recorded a 1.65 ERA, and an MLB-best 0.79 WHIP and 108 strikeouts (13.7 K/9). It’s not just about an unreal ability to induce Ks, although that does play a huge role in his success. Misiorowski has also posted a 2.9% barrel rate, within the 94th percentile among qualified pitchers. In other words, the right-hander doesn’t give up much in terms of quality contact.
Even the sport’s greatest arms have been tested at Coors Field. The high-altitude venue ranks as baseball’s most hitter-friendly ball park over the past three seasons. Colorado is averaging 4.79 runs per game at home, eighth-most in the majors. With that being said, the Rockies also strike out 9.02 times per game, fifth-most in the league. A tendency to swing and miss isn’t ideal against any pitcher, let alone an elite fireballer. Against fastballs at 98 MPH or faster, Colorado batters have put up a .161 expected batting average, .287 expected on-base percentage and .289 wOBA.
To counter The Miz, it’ll likely be Zach Agnos toeing the slab this evening. As of Saturday afternoon, the Rockies still have yet to announce an official starter. However, given that they just recalled the right-hander from Triple-A Albuquerque, he probably gets the nod tonight. Ineffective doesn’t do justice to how bad Agnos’ season has been. Through 37.0 innings pitched, he’s on the hook for a 7.78 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 27 strikeouts (6.6 K/9). Most concerning, the 25-year-old is coughing up 10.9 hits per nine innings to opponents.
If any lineup is capable of racking up some hits, it’s the Brewers. Despite ranking last in baseball with 44 homers, the Crew rank sixth in the league with 310 runs scored. That’s due primarily to their ability to work the count. Milwaukee leads the National League with an 11.3% walk rate, along with baseball’s third-highest on-base percentage (.335). Throughout his two-year professional career, Agnos has recorded a dismal 4.0 BB/9 ratio. If this becomes a battle of the bullpens, advantage Brewers as well. Rockies relievers have accounted for a 5.06 ERA, fourth-worst in the majors.
Best Bet: Brewers -2.5 (-121)
Milwaukee comes into Saturday’s matchup with a clear edge on the mound. The Coors factor is concerning, but Misiorowski should take advantage of a free-swinging Rockies lineup. In comparison, Agnos is clearly out of his depth against a quality Brewers offense. To make matters worse, there’s unlikely to be much support out of Colorado’s bullpen. If there was ever a time to bet on a blowout win, it’s tonight.
