A 3-2 nail-biter on Friday ended with the Rangers (31-32) eking out a 3-2 win over the Guardians (36-29). Texas, just 1.5 games behind Seattle for the AL West lead, is looking to build some momentum this summer. As for Cleveland, the team is on track for a third straight postseason appearance. Which of these American League foes will come out on top tonight?
The Guardians are favorites (-122) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Cleveland and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Rangers pick, best bet
- Rangers ML (-122): Leiter has had recent success against Cleveland, a team that struggles hitting right-handed pitching. As for Bibee, he’s been inconsistent at best this season. Against a Rangers offense welcoming back Langford and Seager, Saturday’s game could prove difficult.
Guardians vs. Rangers prediction, preview
If there’s been a weak link in Cleveland’s pitching staff so far, it’s Tanner Bibee. Despite a solid track record, the fourth-year pro has been erratic at best this season. Through 69.0 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 4.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 60 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). None of his advanced metrics have impressed either. The right-hander sits below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 MPH), chase rate (25.9%), barrel rate (10.6%) and hard-hit rate (46.9%). Still, Bibee has flashed moments of greatness. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in four of his previous five outings.
On paper, this isn’t the most intimidating matchup. Texas has struggled to generate runs, especially at spacious Globe Life Field. The team is averaging 3.52 runs per game at home, third-lowest in baseball. However, the Rangers have been without impact bats Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford for much of the season. The pair both made their return from injury on Friday, with the former launching a two-run homer. Bibee’s biggest weakness this season has been giving up the long ball (1.7 HR/9). As a unit, Texas ranks seventh in hard-hit rate (41.0%) and eighth in average exit velocity (89.6 MPH).
On the other side, Jack Leiter will get the nod on Saturday. Over 12 starts, he’s accounted for a 4.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 74 strikeouts (10.0 K/9). The right-hander has been far more effective when pitching at home (3.34 ERA) as well. Leiter comes into this one fresh off of a 5.2-inning, ten-strikeout masterpiece against Kansas City last week. Over his last five outings, the 26-year-old has accounted for a stellar 2.86 ERA.
Leiter loves lighting up the radar gun, topping out at just over 96 MPH. Against fastballs at that speed or slower. Against four-seamers within 94 and 97 MPH, Guardians hitters own a .222 batting average and .303 wOBA. In addition, Leiter has held Cleveland to just two earned runs over his previous two meetings with the club (1.29 ERA). As a unit, the Guards have scored the league’s ninth-fewest runs per game (4.09). They’re also putting up the fourth-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.678).
Best Bet: Rangers ML (-122)
Neither hurler tonight is a set it and forget it ace. Still, there’s been more to like about Leiter’s performance this season than Bibee’s. That’s especially true when the former takes the mound in Arlington. Texas has been a disappointment offensively, but the return of Langford and Seager should give this group a jolt.
