Not a lot of fighters get a retirement fight, and even fewer get a retirement fight in their home state. Well, Michael Chiesa gets to do just that tonight in Seattle, Washington, which is not too far from where he grew up in Spokane. Chiesa is taking on Niko Price, who is 1-5 in his previous six fights and has suffered three consecutive losses. Even though Chiesa is 38 and this is his final fight, he enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak.
Check out my best bet below for Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price.
Michael Chiesa To Win By Submission (-145)
Even though Chiesa is riding a three-fight winning streak, his longest since 2021, he has chosen to go out on his terms, win or lose, in this fight. Chiesa won The Ultimate Fighter in 2012 and has since competed in the UFC for 13 years. In the UFC, Chiesa has faced numerous elite opponents, including notable victories over Jim Miller, Beneil Dariush, Carlos Condit, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Neil Magny.
Price is 8-10 in the UFC and hasn’t won a fight since June 2024. In his first fight in 2026, Nikolay Veretennikov defeated Price via first-round knockout. In this matchup, Price has the advantage on the feet, averaging 3.10 more significant strikers per minute than Chiesa. But Chiesa has the neutralizer, which is his tremendous defense on the feet. He only absorbs 1.73 significant strikes per minute.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Chiesa is a massive -900 favorite with Price being a +600 underdog. Since Chiesa is such a big favorite, let’s look at a different way to back him. Two of Chiesa’s previous three wins have come by submission, and he has 12 wins by submission in his career. If Chiesa is as aggressive as he has recently been, a submission is very likely against Gibson. Chiesa is -145 to win this contest by submission.
