After a 13-month hiatus, “The Last Style Bender,” Israel Adesanya is back to headline tonight’s UFC Fight Night in Seattle, Washington, against Joe Pyfer. The former Middleweight Champion enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, while Pyfer has won three straight.
Check out my best bet for tonight’s fight between Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer.
Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-142)
Adesanya has the height (6’4″ vs. 6’2″) and reach (80″ vs. 75″) advantage over Pyfer in this contest. Normally, Pyfer is the bigger fighter and excels when using his height and reach to his advantage against opponents. But it will not be the case against Adesanya. Although things haven’t gone his way recently, Adesanya is still an extremely skilled fighter. When Adesanya asserts his dominance on the feet by being patient while keeping his opponent at range and picking them apart, he is hard to beat.
Even though Adesanya has suffered three straight losses, context matters. Two of the three losses were to the last two Middleweight Champions, Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland, and the third was against Nassourdine Imavov, the No. 1 contender. Before being submitted in the fourth round by DDP at UFC 305, Adesanya was successful, outlanding Du Plessis in significant strikes while leading on one judge’s scorecard. The same was true against Imavov: Adesanya had a positive first five minutes, then got caught in the second round.
Adesanya is a -142 favorite while Pyfer is the underdog at +120 on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight has an over/under of 3.5 rounds, with the over being -125 and the under at -105. Pyfer is +250 to score a knockout, while Adesanya is +275 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Adesanya is also +175 to win on the judges’ scorecards.
Adesanya has shown flashes of his former greatness, but he needs to fully put it together to get back in the win column. Pyfer is 6-1 in the UFC with five finishes, but is still ranked 10 spots below Adesanya at No. 14 at 185 pounds. Entering this fight, Pyfer is Adesanya’s least experienced opponent in quite some time. For six years, Adesanya was accustomed to facing top contenders and former champions, but now he has a rising prospect in his path. Adesanya has shut down powerful strikers before, and I believe he will do the same against Pyfer. If Adesanya fights on the outside and is more cautious than before, he should be able to stop Pyfer’s takedown attempts while outstriking him on the feet.
