The NBA is all about peaking at the right time. Success early in the regular season matters little compared to success later on, and after three months of mediocrity, the Los Angeles Lakers’ red-hot march suddenly has them looking like contenders to finish with a top-three seed in the Western Conference.
The Lakers will face a difficult test tonight as they look for their 10th straight win. Los Angeles will travel to Detroit to face the East-leading Pistons at 7:10 p.m. ET.
The Lakers should be relatively healthy, with only Rui Hachimura (calf) and Marcus Smart (ankle) out. The Pistons, meanwhile, will have a long injury list, with Cade Cunningham (lung), Marcus Sasser (hip), and Isaiah Stewart (calf) all set to miss tonight’s game.
As a result, Los Angeles is a 1.5-point road favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-122 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 225.5. Detroit is +102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s potential Finals preview.
Luka Dončić 2+ Steals (-115)
This has rapidly become one of my favorite prop bets, as Dončić continues to play underrated defense. Across the Lakers’ nine-game winning streak, Dončić’s offense has made all the headlines, and for good reason — 40.0 points per game is pretty spectacular — but his 2.6 steals per game also leads the league across that span. All in all, he’s had at least two steals eight times in his last 10 games, continuing what has been one of the best defensive seasons of his career. He’s posted his second-highest steal rate, stop rate, and deflection rate this season, as well as a career high in total contests per 100 possessions.
Meanwhile, despite how good they’ve been overall, the Pistons have struggled with ball security. This season, Detroit ranks 10th-to-last in opponent steals per game, and while due in part to the absent Cunningham, who ranks fourth in turnovers per game, the Pistons’ turnover percentage is 2.6 percentage points higher with the All-NBA candidate off the floor. The last time these teams faced off, Dončić spent most of his time guarding Ausar Thompson, who could see a slight uptick in touches as a secondary ball-handler with Cunningham absent.
Jalen Duren 23+ Points (-103)
Whether or not Cunningham’s collapsed lung keeps him from making an All-NBA team, Detroit remains likely to have an All-NBA representative, given how much Duren has stepped up, especially offensively, in his absence. Since Cunningham got hurt early in the team’s game against the Washington Wizards on March 17, Duren has scored 36, 24, and 23 points, and all in all, he’s topped the 23-point threshold six times in his last eight games. His usage should remain high with both Cunningham and Stewart out, as the only other healthy center on the Pistons’ roster is six-foot-nine Paul Reed.
As long as Daniss Jenkins can get it to Duren inside, he should have no trouble feasting against the Lakers, who have struggled with interior defense all season. Sure, Los Angeles has posted the league’s 10th-best defense across its nine-game win streak, but it has still allowed opponents to convert their shots at the fourth-highest rate within five feet across that span. Plus, the Lakers have been one of the league’s worst rebounding teams across that span, and Duren ranks sixth league-wide in second-chance points per game.
Austin Reaves 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+128)
Reaves has been a bit cold as of late, shooting just 19.2% from beyond the arc in Los Angeles’ last three games, but prior to his latest funk, he’d hit three or more threes in each of his previous four games. His usage rate might see a small uptick tonight, given that two of the Lakers’ other three-point threats — Hachimura and Smart — will both miss the game with injuries. Advanced stats suggest that he’s still among the league’s best shooters, as he ranks 29th among all qualified players in three-point percentage over expectation.
As one of the league’s best rim-protecting teams, Detroit is susceptible to elite three-point shooting teams, and while the Pistons still have one of the league’s best perimeter defenders in Thompson, they’ll be missing Cunningham, who ranks in the 83rd percentile in total contests per game and the 96th percentile in points saved. In the three games since his injury, they’ve wide-open three-pointers at a league-average rate.
