While Opening Day across MLB isn’t until Thursday, the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants will get the ball rolling on the regular season in a standalone showdown on Wednesday. Max Fried will take the bump for the Yankees, facing off against Giants ace Logan Webb at Oracle Park. Looking at the odds, lines and Fried’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the left-hander’s first official outing of the year could play out.
Max Fried Strikeouts Prop
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Fried’s strikeouts thrown line set at 5.5 for Wednesday’s contest against the Giants.
Fried averaged 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 2025, up from his 8.6 mark with the Atlanta Braves in 2024. The lefty also led MLB with 19 wins and notched career-highs with 32 starts, 195 1/3 innings and 189 strikeouts. Adding in his 2.86 ERA, 1.101 WHIP and 4.8 fWAR, Fried earned a fourth-place finish in the AL Cy Young race. Fried averaged 5.91 strikeouts per start over the course of last regular season. He reached at least six strikeouts in 19 of his 32 outings and nine of his 17 road starts. When Fried went longer than five innings, he hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts at a 70.8% rate.
Based on FanGraphs’ Steamer model, Fried is projected to go 13-9 with a 3.28 ERA and 180 strikeouts across 31 starts and 189.0 innings in 2026. His 3.7 projected fWAR ranks No. 13 among pitchers, but his projected 8.53 strikeouts per nine innings ranks No. 92.
It is worth noting that manager Aaron Boone told reporters this week that the Yankees plan to open the season with a four-man rotation. That could impact how Boone uses his top-line starters, from Fried to rookie Cam Schlittler and offseason trade acquisition Ryan Weathers. 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is starting the year in the minors, while Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are all still recovering from elbow surgeries they underwent in 2025. Fried will have a heavy load to carry early on in 2026, which could lead to a ton of innings or relative load management.
Max Fried picks, predictions
Looking deeper into Wednesday’s matchup with the Giants, there is one major factor that could prevent Fried from racking up Ks – Luis Arráez.
The newly acquired infielder won three consecutive batting titles with three different teams between 2022 and 2024. And although Arráez doesn’t bring a ton of pop to the plate with his .392 slugging percentage over the past two seasons, he led the NL in hits in both of those campaigns. He has also struck out just 50 times in his last 304 games and once in 11 career at-bats versus Fried. Should Arráez fill the leadoff spot on manager Tony Vitello’s lineup card, that’s effectively one fewer guy Fried can put down via a strikeout. At the same time, though, FanGraphs is projecting Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Harrison Bader and Patrick Bailey to each post strikeout rates over 23.5% in 2026.
That powerful, strikeout-heavy lineup could struggle against Fried, who allowed just 0.6 home runs per nine innings in 2025. You should also take into account that Arráez – a lefty – strikes out at a 10% rate versus lefties in his career compared to his 5.5% mark against righties. Strikeout-averse outfielder Jung Hoo Lee also goes from striking out 9.7% of the time against righties to 17.3% against lefties. Even a righty like shortstop Adames actually strikes out more often versus lefties than he does against righties.
Fried hitting the over obviously depends on how long he can stay in the game, but as long as he gets into the sixth, I’m confident he can rack up enough punchouts.
