Texas is currently experiencing a golden era of women’s basketball. Last season, the Longhorns advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 2003, where they ultimately fell to eventual runners-up South Carolina. This season, Texas is once again a No. 1 seed, hoping to advance two wins farther than it did in 2025.
The Longhorns will open their 2026 tournament at 4 p.m. ET this afternoon with a matchup against No. 16 Missouri State. The Lady Bears had to go through the First Four, but they emerged with a solid 85-75 win over Stephen F. Austin.
Texas is a 45.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 133.5. Below, I’ll break down this first-round matchup and offer a prediction.
Missouri State Lady Bears at Texas Longhorns (4:00 p.m. ET)
After a couple of rough patches in the middle of its season, Missouri State ended the season in strong form, winning four of its final five regular-season matchups and emerging with a trio of narrow victories to claim the Conference USA Tournament as the third seed. The Lady Bears are arguably under-seeded, finishing 115th in NET rating (above No. 14 Howard and all four No. 15 seeds), and they had two wins against Quad 3 wins, as well as a winning record on the road. Playing in Austin will still be a massive challenge, but Missouri State’s defense — which allowed fewer than 60 points 16 times, including 38 in the CUSA title game — could be up for the task.
The Lady Bears’ offense is heavily dependent on two players. Junior guard Kaemyn Bekemeier leads the team with 17.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and Lainie Douglas averages 13.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while also providing a team-leading 1.6 blocks per contest. Missouri State hasn’t shot the ball very well — no player has made more than 37.5% of her triples, and as a team, it is below 30% from deep — but it has plenty of defensive playmakers, as Maycee James averaged 2.4 steals per game (good for 56th nationwide). The Lady Bears also ranked a solid 40th in rebound margin.
Still, Missouri State doesn’t hold a candle to the Longhorns on paper. Texas only lost three times all season, and none of the teams it lost to finished the season below seventh in NET rating. The Longhorns ended the season hot, winning 13 of their final 14 games, and the SEC tournament final against the Gamecocks wasn’t particularly competitive, as Texas ultimately won by 17 points. It played a difficult schedule, playing 17 games against Quad 1 teams, the second-most of any team. The Longhorns also went a perfect 18-0 at home.
While the Lady Bears only have two 10-plus-PPG scorers, Texas has three. Madison Booker (18.9 PPG) leads the way in both points and rebounds (6.5), with Jordan Lee (13.2) and Kyla Oldacre (10.5) providing plenty of supplementary scoring. The Longhorns also have one of the best two-way playmaking guards in college basketball, as Rori Harmon leads the team in both assists (6.2) and steals (2.7) while canning more than 40% of her threes. While Booker’s threes haven’t been falling, Texas is one of the best two-point shooting teams in the country, finishing fifth in field goal percentage despite ranking just 63rd in three-point percentage. The Longhorns also rebound even better than Missouri State does.
However, Texas has had some issues with indiscipline, ranking just 202nd in fouls per game, and the Lady Bears rank 16th in free-throw attempts per game. Plus, Missouri State can hang with the Longhorns on the boards better than most teams of its seed, and it out-paces Texas in field goal percentage defense, helping limit the Longhorns’ prowess inside. The Lady Bears limited Stephen F. Austin to just 22-for-44 (50.0%) shooting from inside the arc during the First Four, and a similar defensive performance against another Lone Star State team would help them cover the spread.
