Wyoming arrives in El Paso with four consecutive wins and a substantial piece of its offense unavailable. Tyler Hughes has been ruled out with a forearm injury, leaving Landon Sims to operate an attack whose leading rusher was also its starting quarterback. Hughes’ 676 rushing yards describe the scale of that adjustment. His ability to carry the ball required attention from defenders who also had to account for Samuel Harris and Markell Holman. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UTEP Miners and the Wyoming Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UTEP vs. Wyoming prediction, preview
Sims participated in Wyoming’s win at UNLV before Hughes exited. An 18-yard touchdown pass came from a design that first sent the ball from Hughes to Sims on a lateral, and Sims subsequently scored on a 13-yard run. He finished with 25 passing yards. Wyoming has ways to involve him, including enough backfield help to avoid asking for a dramatic passing transformation, but that relief appearance offers a limited basis for projecting an entire game.
Harris rushed for 128 yards and Holman added 110 against UNLV. Their production keeps Wyoming’s offensive ceiling relevant to any under discussion. UTEP’s defense has allowed opponents to score on 35 of 39 red-zone possessions, so a sequence of successful runs can still become seven points quickly. I expect the Cowboys to establish themselves on the ground and reach the low 20s.
UTEP faces a more awkward route to sustained offense. The Miners have allowed 41 sacks and 82 tackles for loss while converting 29 of 112 third downs. Those failures compound one another: an early negative play creates a passing situation, and the next sack can end the possession altogether. Wyoming has recorded 17 sacks during its winning streak. Esaia Bogar supplies an edge threat with 5.5 sacks, while Ethan Stuhlsatz contributed 2.5 against UNLV.
Raymond Moore III can interrupt that pattern with his legs. His 522 rushing yards include gains of 57, 79 and 86 yards, and Wyoming has conceded 5.53 yards per carry in the play-by-play comparison. UTEP will need that escape route with running back Tavorus Jones ruled out. Lamar Sperling should shoulder more carries after rushing for 63 yards against Hawaii. Wyoming’s pursuit must contain Moore without opening a lane for Sperling.
Wyoming vs. UTEP pick, best bet
Long runs have produced relatively few complete scoring possessions. UTEP has scored on only 11 of 19 red-zone trips. The Miners managed two touchdowns against Hawaii last week, then watched the Warriors consume the final 6:57 with a 13-play possession.
The 40.5 total accommodates Wyoming reaching 27 while UTEP stays at 13. Hughes’ absence reduces my confidence in laying the touchdown, and the Miners’ protection problems make an offensive revival difficult to price in. With Jones also unavailable, UTEP has another workload to redistribute against a defense generating frequent negative plays.
Best bet: Under 40.5 (-110)
Projected score: Wyoming 23, UTEP 13.
Best Bet: UTEP vs. Wyoming u40.5 total points scored (-110)
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