Selection Sunday always creates its own bustling black market of hope. And that’s the whole point. Before the first tip, before the first panicked timeout, before some 12-seed guard starts playing like he has been waiting his whole life to ruin a power conference’s afternoon, the bracket becomes a machine for manufacturing premature folklore. Fans want upset picks, yes. They want permission to imagine a better story than the one the committee handed them. Every March, that is how a few lower seeds become more than teams. They become moods, aesthetics, tiny insurgencies with good guard play and a flattering turnover rate. Alternatively: they solidify themselves as sparkling legends.
But the best upset path might be the better way to choose a Cinderalla, as opposed to merely choosing the prettiest upset pick. The field is official now, with Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida sitting on the one-line, and the first wave of bracket discourse has already started doing what it always does—mistaking brand fatigue for vulnerability, confusing a fun first-round draw with an actual runway, turning any competent mid-major with a spacing package into the next national folk hero. The teams on this list are here for a stricter reason. They have both first-punch and a bracket shape that leaves the door open after the glass breaks. March is full of fake chaos. The good kind has the suggestion of linear structure.
Here’s how I see it it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Five best upset paths on the 2026 bracket
12-seed Akron Zips
Akron has the best upset path on the board because this is the rare mid-major case where the opening game is not the whole argument. The Zips arrive as a No. 12 seed in the Midwest against No. 5 Texas Tech, and the price itself tells the story: Texas Tech opened as only an 8.5-point opening favorite. That makes sense once the profile is laid out flat. Akron is scoring 86.9 points per game with a 58.5% effective field goal rate, a 32.7% offensive-rebound rate, only a 13.4% turnover rate, and 17.9 assists per game. That isactual pressure. The Zips also closed on seven straight wins, including the MAC tournament title run, and landed here while Texas Tech is dealing with the season-ending loss of JT Toppin plus fresh concern around Christian Anderson after his Big 12 tournament injury. The Red Raiders still shoot it beautifully—39.3% from three and a 56.2% eFG—but the version of them that got bracketed is visibly less complete than the one the committee seeded.
And the path is why Akron belongs at the top of this list. If the Zips land that first punch, the second-round opponent is Alabama or Hofstra—not Michigan, not Iowa State, not a two-seed disguised as a four. Alabama still owns one of the loudest offenses in the country at 91.7 points per game and a 55.4% eFG, but it also gives up 83.5 points per game, allows opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, and just got dumped 80-79 by Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. Hofstra is dangerous in its own right, which is part of the point: this section of the Midwest is unstable. Michigan and Iowa State loom later, but the real estate before the Sweet 16 has enough loose floorboards for Akron to matter beyond Thursday. This is what a real path looks like—one upset that opens into daylight instead of slamming into concrete.
11-seed VCU Rams
VCU is the cleanest single-game upset on the bracket and still strong enough as a path team to make this list. The Rams drew No. 6 North Carolina in the South, and the market reacted like it did not entirely trust the seed line: UNC opened only -2.5. That is almost an admission that this game is already living in toss-up territory. VCU earned that respect. The Rams just defended their Atlantic 10 tournament title with a 70-62 win over Dayton, and the numbers behind them are heavy-duty March numbers: 81.6 points per game, a 54.1% eFG, a 31.3% offensive-rebound rate, a 0.437 free-throw rate, a 13.0% turnover rate, and 36.7% three-point shooting. They play with the kind of double-pressure profile that ruins high-major comfort—make shots, get to the line, then make you defend second chances. North Carolina still has real quality, but the Tar Heels are entering this game without Caleb Wilson, whose season-ending thumb injury took 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game off the table. That matters even more because UNC already sits just 216th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 34.5%, which is exactly the wrong soft spot to bring into a game against a VCU team that can stretch and punish late closeouts.
The reason VCU still qualifies as a path piece is that the South has one open seam before it hardens. Illinois is likely waiting in round two, and that is hardly a gift-wrapped continuation of the party. But the region reaction around VCU has been loud for a reason. The South preview already tagged the Rams as an upset threat because of their pressure defense and late-season surge, and outside reaction has leaned in the same direction, with Yahoo’s first-round board calling for VCU to upend North Carolina and social reaction around UNC’s seed quickly turning into anti-Tar Heel forecasting. Florida and Houston are the big capital-C Contenders in this region, but VCU is the team whose first-round runway is most obviously real. The path is narrower than Akron’s, but the door itself is open wide enough to walk through without squeezing sideways.
10-seed Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara has the prettiest upset path in the bracket because the matchup is live, the team identity is coherent, and the bracket geography behind the first game doesn’t immediately turn to ash. The Broncos are back in the tournament for the first time since 1996 as a No. 10 seed, and they drew No. 7 Kentucky in St. Louis with the Wildcats opening only -3.5. That seems, to me, like suspicion wearing a seed number. Santa Clara finished 26-8, won 13 of its last 16, and has the exact profile that makes bigger brands feel overdressed. The Broncos average 82.8 points per game with a 54.6% eFG, a nasty 35.0% offensive-rebound rate, only a 13.2% turnover rate, and 16.6 assists per game. They also launch 29.0 threes per night, which means they both shoot and reorganize the floor. That is why the reaction has been so quick. Bruce Pearl immediately pointed to Santa Clara’s shooting and size as upset material, while Kentucky-side coverage described the Broncos as a balanced, analytically respected opponent with real offensive rebounding and spacing pop. Kentucky is good enough to win this game, but its own profile is less imposing than the brand name suggests: 53.1% eFG, 32.5% offensive rebounding, and a defense allowing 73.8 points per game.
What pushes Santa Clara from upset pick into upset path is what comes next. If the Broncos beat Kentucky, the likely round-two opponent is Iowa State, and that is a harder battle, if not an altogether an absurd one. Iowa State has stumbled late relative to earlier expectations. More broadly, the entire lower half of the Midwest has the feel of a region that can be disturbed. Alabama is explosive but unstable on defense. Texas Tech is wounded. Hofstra is a genuine nuisance. Michigan is the one-seed, but the Broncos would not see the Wolverines until much later. Santa Clara is a high-volume, offensive-rebounding, long-range stress test with enough air in front of it to stay interesting after the first shock wears off.
13-seed Hofstra Pride
Hofstra is the deepest-cut answer on this list, which is exactly why the path argument matters more than the seed number. On paper, No. 13 versus No. 4 Alabama looks like a classic enjoy-the-story-before-tip setup. On the actual board, it is more volatile than that. The Pride arrive at 24-10, in their first NCAA tournament since 2001, with 11 wins in their last 12 games and two road receipts that matter more than the conference label—wins at Pittsburgh and Syracuse. The statistical architecture is serious enough to keep talking after the jersey reveal. Hofstra allows only 67.6 points per game, owns a 45.9% opponent eFG, posts a 33.6% offensive-rebound rate, and sits at 0.997 in defensive efficiency, good for top-50 territory by TeamRankings. The Pride also rank fourth nationally in two-point percentage defense at 44.2% and led the CAA in three-point percentage at 37.2%. Then there is Cruz Davis, the kind of guard who makes this sort of story believable instead of decorative: 20.2 points per game, five thirty-point outings, 36 at Pitt, 22 at Syracuse. Action’s Midwest reaction put it plainly—if Hofstra can run Alabama off the three-point line, it is live.
The path logic is what saves Hofstra from being written off as a one-game fever dream. Alabama can absolutely vaporize people—91.7 points per game, 55.4% eFG, top-tier schedule strength, and plenty of talent—but the Tide also concede 83.5 per night, foul a lot, and let opponents attack the glass. If Hofstra steals the first game, the second-round opponent is Texas Tech or Akron. That is the trick. The reward for upsetting Alabama is another pod game against either an injured five-seed or a mid-major peer with a different kind of volatility. In other words, the bracket leaves the room messy. For a defense-first team with a star guard and real interior resistance, that is all the invitation March ever needs.
12-seed High Point Panthers
High Point is the public darling for a reason. The Panthers earned their way into the glare. They are 30-4, they won the Big South, and they drew No. 5 Wisconsin in the West with the Badgers opening in the -9.5 to -11.5 range depending on the board. ESPN betting reaction went straight for the jugular and called High Point over Wisconsin the preferred 12-over-5 look, arguing that the committee had essentially matched the Panthers’ strengths against Wisconsin’s defensive weak spots. The raw profile explains why. High Point scores 86.5 points per game, carries a 54.7% eFG, gets to the line relentlessly with a 0.429 FTA/FGA and 26.3 free-throw attempts per game, turns it over on only 11.2% of possessions, and creates chaos with 10.4 steals per game. This is far from just just a run-and-gun novelty act. It is an offense with multiple pressure points and a defense that can make games ugly enough to swing on a few loose possessions. Wisconsin, for all its craft, gives up a 51.3% opponent eFG, does not attack the offensive glass much at all with a 27.3% ORB rate, and lives more by control than force.
The reason High Point lands fifth instead of first is that its path is there, but not altogether laid openly before them. Beat Wisconsin and the next checkpoint is Arkansas or Hawaii, which at least means the Panthers would still be playing inside the pod rather than sprinting directly into Arizona. That matters. It gives the upset a second chapter. But the wider West is loaded with Arizona, Purdue, and Gonzaga, so this region is like a beautifully lit exit ramp that immediately feeds back into traffic. Out of the frying pan, etc. Still, the first weekend opportunity is unmistakable. High Point has the offense, the foul pressure, the turnover discipline, and the live-ball activity to make Wisconsin feel a little too handcrafted for this particular kind of fight. Sometimes the trendy upset is trendy because everybody can hear the same crack in the glass.
