ACC bragging rights will be settled on Saturday night in Charlotte. #1 Duke (31-2, 17-1) is looking to etch its name among the best teams in program history. The Blue Devils come into tonight’s game having won ten straight. However, they’ll have to take down red-hot #10 Virginia (29-4, 15-3). The Cavaliers are a group on the rise, looking the part of a dark horse national title contender.
Duke enters as 7.5-point favorites (-108) over Virginia. The total is set at 140.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils.
Virginia vs. Duke prediction, preview
What a turnaround it’s been for the Hoos. Following a 15-win 2024-25 campaign, this traditional powerhouse has bounced back in a major way. Virginia’s 29 wins put them in elite company, and the advanced metrics back it up. Per KenPom, UVA is 13th in net rating (+) while ranking inside the top 30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Much like previous Tony Bennett-led rosters, the Cavaliers prefer to play at a slow pace. It helps when you’re holding opponents to college basketball’s fifth-lowest efficient field goal percentage (45.3%).
Defensively, Virginia is always going to give 110%. The biggest question is whether they can keep up with some of the sport’s highest scoring squads. Thijs De Ridder has been the number one option in Charlottesville. The big Belgian is currently averaging 15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while shooting 51% from the field. In the back court, Malik Thomas and Sam Lewis have combined for 22.9 points per game. The Cavaliers rank 58th in three-point percentage (36.0%) and 37th in three-point attempts per field goals attempted (46.6).
When these two teams last met in February, the Blue Devils dominated en route to a 26-point victory. However, that game took place inside always-intimidating Cameron Indoor Stadium. A neutral site matchup should be a bit kinder to the underdogs tonight. Regardless, Duke has the necessary pieces to beat anyone on any court. It all starts with Cameron Boozer, a Wooden Award contender. The 6’9″ big man has delivered an ACC-leading 22.8 points and 10.3 rebounds along with 4.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game.
Boozer isn’t the only name in Durham that deserves recognition. Down low, he’s usually supported by an elite defender in Patrick Ngongba (6.0 REB, 1.1 BLK). However, a foot injury will keep the sophomore out of the ACC Tournament. On offense, Isaiah Evans (14.7 PPG) and Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG, 2.8 AST) have been standouts. Unfortunately, the latter (foot) is also out. The Blue Devils, already a top-heavy roster, have now gotten a bit thinner. Cayden Boozer has seen a minutes boost with Foster sidelined. The guard tallied 16 points against Clemson on Friday.
Virginia vs. Duke pick, best bet
The Cavaliers are a better team than what they showed last time vs. Duke. However, it’s difficult to back anyone other than the nation’s elite against the Blue Devils. Still, the lack of a distributor in Foster and an elite defender in Ngongba isn’t ideal. Two slow-paced, hard-nosed rivals, with a conference championship on the line? This has all the makings of an ugly, nail-biting affair.
