Today marks one of the best slates of basketball all year. There is plenty of high-level action across the collegiate schedule, with anticipation ahead of the NCAA Tournament selection continuing to build. Tipping off in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, the Saint Joseph’s Hawks will face off with the VCU Rams.
These teams already faced off once in the regular season. VCU picked up a 79-72 win, with the matchup taking place on January 19. Neither team was able to take a lead by more than seven points in the matchup, which was a very even one throughout.
Looking at the odds for today, VCU enters as a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Saint Joseph’s holds +245 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 146.5 points.
Saint Joseph’s vs. VCU prediction, preview
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks hold a 22-10 record on the season and have gone 13-5 in Atlantic 10 Conference play. They enter this matchup on a seven-game winning streak, which includes eliminating Davidson in their previous conference tournament matchup. On the season, Saint Joseph’s has gone 18-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of the 30 qualifying games.
Jaiden Glover-Toscano headlines the production for the Hawks with averages of 15.9 points and 4.9 rebounds. Sophomore guard Deuce Jones II was second on the team in scoring with 15.8 points, but was dismissed from this Hawks team midseason. Derek Simpson adds 13.8 points and a conference-leading 5.2 assists per game, while Dasear Haskins is the lone other player to average double figures with 11.1 points and 6.2 rebounds. Austin Williford, Justice Ajogbor, and Anthony Finkley also play key roles.
Steve Donahue’s squad is scoring 73.6 points per game this season, which ranks 242nd out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Saint Joseph’s also ranks 237th in offensive rating, 297th in field goal percentage, and 333rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, teams are scoring 69.7 points per game against the Hawks, which ranks 67th in the country. They also rank 55th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field goal percentage, and 60th in opponent three-point percentage.
The VCU Rams hold a 25-7 record on the year and have gone 15-3 in Atlantic 10 Conference play. They enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak and have won 14 of their last 15. On the season, VCU has gone 15-17 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 17 of the 32 games played.
Terrence Hill Jr. headlines the scoring with 14.3 points per game, along with 2.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Lazar Djokovic is the lone other player to average double figures with 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Jadarian Tracey, Brandon Jennings, and Nyk Lewis each add over eight points per game, while Michael Belle and Ahmad Nowell also play notable roles.
Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad is averaging 82.5 points per game, which ranks 51st in the country. VCU also ranks 45th in offensive rating, 115th in field goal percentage, and 39th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Rams are allowing 72.0 points per game, which ranks 125th in the country. VCU also ranks 93rd in defensive rating, 113th in opponent field goal percentage, and 133rd in opponent three-point percentage.
Saint Joseph’s vs. VCU pick, best bet
It was a battle between these two teams in the first matchup. VCU ultimately pulled off a 79-72 win, but both teams pushed leads to as large as seven in the matchup. The stat profiles were similar in the game, with both teams shooting the ball fairly well, the rebounding battle ending 37-35, and both teams holding leads for 37%+ of the game.
On the wider scale, VCU is the more talented team with a superior offense. However, Saint Joseph’s has an athletic advantage and the look of a team peaking at the right time. VCU is dependent on production from beyond the three-point arc for success, but Saint Joseph’s has done a nice job limiting these looks all season. The Hawks rank 60th in opponent three-point percentage.
Not only is a seven-game winning streak by Saint Joseph’s impressive, but the Hawks have covered the spread in each of these victories. They were 14.5-point underdogs in the first matchup between these two teams, which they covered in the seven-point loss. It was a rocky start to the season, but the Hawks have covered the spread in 14 of their past 16 games.
I am buying that this season’s turnaround is legitimate, as there has been a noteworthy shift in style and feel since the midseason dismissal of their expected best player. Count on the Hawks’ defense being ready for the challenge of the VCU offensive attack and to keep this within striking distance throughout. The athletic advantage of Saint Joseph’s will cause some issues for VCU.
The Hawks should be considered live underdogs in this matchup, so count on them to keep it within the 7.5-point spread. VCU was unable to separate by more than this margin at any point in the first matchup between these two sides, and Saint Joseph’s has only played better basketball since. Expect the momentum to carry over and for Saint Joseph’s to put forth a complete effort today.
