The countdown to the NCAA Tournament is on, and conference tournaments are in full swing to cement the seedings. Tipping off Friday night in the ACC Tournament, the Clemson Tigers will challenge the Duke Blue Devils. These teams met once during the regular season, with Duke rolling to a 67-54 home victory.
Duke enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Clemson sits as a +455 underdog. The game total is set at 135.5 points.
Clemson vs. Duke prediction, preview
Clemson enters with a 24-9 overall record and a 12-6 mark in ACC play. The program enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak — punctuated by an 80-79 quarterfinal win over North Carolina — but has dropped five of its last nine. The Tigers are 18-15 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 19 of 33 matchups.
Brad Brownell’s squad ranks 216th nationally in scoring, 106th in offensive rating, 154th in field-goal percentage, and 168th in three-point percentage. On the other end, Clemson sits 26th in opponent scoring, 52nd in defensive rating, 55th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 104th in opponent three-point accuracy.
RJ Godfrey headlines the production for Clemson, averaging 11.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Carter Welling is the only other Tiger averaging double figures, with 10.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, but suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Wednesday’s ACC tournament game against Wake Forest. Jestin Porter, Nick Davidson, and Ace Buckner each add over eight points per game, while Dillon Hunter and Jake Wahlin also play key roles in the rotation.
Duke is the top-ranked team in the nation with a 30-2 overall record and 17-1 mark in conference play. The program’s two losses came against Texas Tech and North Carolina. The Blue Devils enter this matchup on a nine-game winning streak, though they received quite the scare from Florida State in Thursday’s 80-79 ACC quarterfinal win. They are 18-14 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 21 of 32 games.
Jon Scheyer has wasted no time reshaping Duke into a college basketball powerhouse. The Blue Devils rank 41st nationally in scoring, seventh in offensive rating, 20th in field-goal percentage, and 119th in three-point percentage. Defensively, they sit third in opponent scoring, second in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
Star freshman Cameron Boozer leads the Blue Devils with 22.8 points, an ACC-leading 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Isaiah Evans adds 15 points and 2.9 rebounds of his own, and Patrick Ngongba II contributes 10.7 points and six rebounds. Unfortunately, Duke has gotten bit by the injury bug, and both Ngnongba and starting point guard Caleb Foster are sidelined for the ACC Tournament — and possibly beyond. Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer, adds 6.5 points and 2.8 assists. Dame Sarr, Maliq Brown, and Nikolas Khamenia round out most of the team’s notable rotation.
Clemson vs. Duke pick, best bet
Injuries are a legitimate concern for Duke, with both Foster and Ngongba being huge parts of this team. The Blue Devils got out-rebounded, 39-29, in Thursday’s win over Florida State. Still, Clemson is also left increasingly vulnerable without Carter Welling.
Even with injuries, there is too much talent on this Duke team to blink at the wide spread. Clemson is a respectable team with strong defense, but its offense lacks the firepower to keep up with the Blue Devils.
Clemson held Duke to just 67 points — tied for the program’s second-lowest scoring output of the season — during their regular-season matchup. But the Blue Devils can compensate with truly elite defense, holding the Tigers to just 54 points en route to a 13-point blowout. No other team has held Clemson below 63 points, and the contest marked the program’s worst field-goal percentage of any game all season.
For Clemson to stand any chance, it must slow things down and turn things into a defense-oriented battle. There’s just one problem: the Tigers seemingly have no answer for a guy like Cam Boozer. It felt as though Clemson played as well as it could have in the first meeting, which still ended in a double-digit win for Duke, where the Blue Devils led for 91% of the game and stretched their lead to as much as 22 points.
While 10.5 points is a notable spread, Duke leads the country with a +19.8 margin of victory. Even with an injured roster, expect more of the same from Duke in Friday’s rematch with Clemson.
