Conference tournaments are in full swing across the college basketball world, and there’s a loaded slate of games taking place just about wherever you look on Friday. The Atlantic 10 Conference may not get the most shine, but things are getting interesting heading into the quarterfinals of the conference tourney this evening as the No. 6 Davidson Wildcats take on the No. 3 Saint Joseph’s Hawks.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Davidson vs. Saint Joseph’s on Friday, March 13.
Davidson vs. Saint Joseph’s prediction, preview
Davidson Wildcats
The Wildcats come in at 20-12 overall and just 10-8 in Atlantic 10 play, which earned them the No. 6 seed in the conference tourney. They didn’t have the best of seasons by any means, and while they’ve punched a ticket to this quarterfinal matchup, they just barely managed to do so with a 64-59 overtime victory over No. 14 Loyola IL yesterday. They’ve had to scrap against Quad 3 opponents like Saint Joseph’s, going 6-4 in such contests overall.
Davidson falls 110th in the KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +5.67, the 157th-ranked ORTG and the 80th-ranked DRTG. The program is one that looks to slow the pace considerably, sitting 342nd in adjusted tempo and using that sluggish game plan to keep matchups low-scoring. The Wildcats allow only 68.0 PPG, 36th in the country. They pull down 32.7 rebounds per game and are below average on the boards. Offensively, the production doesn’t exactly stand out with just 69.9 PPG on a 44.9% FG% and 35.6% 3P%. They also dish just 13.2 assists per contest with a 1.269 AST/TO ratio.
Roberts Blums paces the Wildcats’ roster with 12.1 PPG, shooting 41.2% from downtown in the process. Josh Scovens pitches in 11.0 points with a team-high 4.1 rebounds, while Parker Friedrichsen is the long other double-digit scorer with 10.7 PPG and a 41.7% 3P%. Sam Brown, Devin Brown and Nick Coval all play key roles in the rotation.
Saint Joseph’s Hawks
On the opposite bench, Saint Joseph’s holds a 21-10 record on the year with a 13-5 mark in A-10 play. The Hawks are a dominant 8-2 against fellow Quad 3 teams like Davidson, winning seven straight matchups in this split. Beyond that, they’ve won six straight contests as well and have some significant momentum heading into tonight after earning a bye through the first round of this tournament.
Saint Joseph’s sits 122nd in the KenPom rankings with a +4.01 NETRTG, the 216th ORTG and the 61st-ranked DRTG. This program averages 72.3 PPG but has some of the nation’s lowest shooting percentages with a FG% of 42.4% and 3P% of 30.5%. The efficiency leaves much to be desired, but the Hawks succeed on ball movement — they post 15.2 assists a game with the 29th-best AST/FGM ratio, though a 1.309 AST/TO ratio is unspectacular. They are strong on the boards with 37.8 per game, 49th in the nation, and the defense allows just 70.5 PPG to opponents along with the 29th-lowest eFG%.
Jaiden Glover-Toscano averages 15.8 points as the leading scorer here, also contributing 4.9 rebounds per game. Derek Simpson brings all-around production of 13.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists, and Dasear Haskin averages 11.3 points with a team-best 6.3 boards. Austin Williford and Justice Ajogbor play heavy minutes, too.
Davidson vs. Saint Joseph’s pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Saint Joseph’s as a 2.5-point favorite with the game total set at 132.5 combined points.
These teams have met twice this season, splitting both of those contests. In the first game back in January, the Wildcats emerged with a road victory in a 62-56 win. However, the Hawks got their revenge on March 4 with a 70-67 win on the road themselves. It should be noted that no Saint Joseph’s player scored more than 11 points in the game the team lost, with leading scorer Glover-Toscano scoring just six points on a 1-for-8 shooting night.
He isn’t likely to collapse in such a manner again, and with the advantage on the glass, it makes sense to pick the Hawks to survive and advance tonight. I like them to win outright if you’re making a Moneyline pick, but the under may be the safer bet anyways. Davidson will surely look to drag the tempo down, but the defense of Saint Joseph’s isn’t shabby itself. Scoring should come at a premium, which is backed by the fact that games played by Saint Joseph’s have gone under the total on 18 occasions, while Davidson’s split has 16 games in which the under has cashed.
