Conference tournaments are in full swing, with anticipation for the NCAA Tournament selection continuing to build. Two teams that are expected to be high seeds and could be primed for a major run will face off tonight, as the Kansas Jayhawks challenge the Houston Cougars in the Big 12 Conference Tournament.
These two heavyweights faced off once already this year. This matchup took place on February 23 and resulted in a 69-56 Kansas victory. Houston held a lead for 37% of this matchup, but Kansas took control in the second half and stretched the lead to as large as 20.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Houston enters as a 5.5-point favorite and holds -245 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Kansas holds +200 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 139.5.
Kansas vs. Houston prediction, preview
The Kansas Jayhawks rank 14th in the AP Poll with a 23-9 record on the season, and have gone 12-6 in Big 12 conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins, but are just 4-4 outright in their last eight games. On the season, Kansas is 20-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 21 of its 32 games played.
Bill Self’s squad is scoring 76.5 points per game on the season, which ranks 160th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Kansas also ranks 149th in offensive rating, 138th in field goal percentage, and 117th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.4 points per game against the Jayhawks, which ranks 62nd. Kansas also ranks 47th in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field goal percentage, and 19th in opponent three-point percentage.
Potential top NBA pick Darryn Peterson headlines the production with 20.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists, shooting 38.3% on three-point attempts. While he battled some injury and availability issues throughout the year, it is worth noting that Peterson has played eight consecutive games leading into this one. Tre White has been essential in picking up the slack without him and posts averages of 14.1 points and 6.8 rebounds, shooting 42.6% on three-point attempts. Flory Bidunga adds 13.9 points and a team-high 9.1 rebounds, leading the Big 12 in field goal percentage (65.1%) and blocks (2.7). Melvin Council Jr. is the lone other player to average in double figures, with 13.2 points and a team-high 5.2 assists per game. Bryson Tiller, Elmarko Jackson, and Jamari McDowell also play notable roles.
Houston ranks fifth in the AP Poll with a 27-5 overall record and 14-4 mark in Big 12 play. The program suffered a tough three-game skid against Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas less than a month ago, but the Cougars have rebounded to win four consecutive games entering tonight. On the season, Houston has gone 15-17 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of its 32 games played.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad ranks 141st in the nation in scoring with 77.5 points per game. Houston also ranks 34th in offensive rating, 191st in field goal percentage, and 167th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 62.8 points per game against the Cougars, which is the second-best rate in the country. They also rank 11th in defensive rating, 22nd in opponent field goal percentage, and 74th in opponent three-point percentage.
Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has emerged as Houston’s offensive engine, leading the team with 16.5 points and 5.3 assists per game. Emanuel Sharp provides more experience in the backcourt, adding 15.7 points while leading the Big 12 with an 89.1% free-throw percentage. Milos Uzan is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.4 points and 4.1 assists per game. Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler round out the starting lineup and play a major role in attacking the glass. Houston keeps a narrow rotation with no player outside of the starting lineup playing more than 15 minutes per game.
Kansas vs. Houston pick, best bet
The results of the first matchup between these two teams were a bit stunning for both sides. To view it through Kansas’ lens, this was the program’s best defensive performance of the season, and the unit matched Houston’s physicality by winning the rebounding battle 38-33. The Jayhawks were largely unbothered by the Cougars’ physicality and were able to pull ahead in the second half of the matchup. From Houston’s viewpoint, this was the group’s worst field goal percentage in any game this season and second-worst three-point percentage as its players shot 32% from the field and 21% on three-point attempts. The Cougars were unable to generate offensive rebounds and generate points off turnovers at the rate that has come to be expected.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, in what was an excellent performance from Kansas and a poor effort from Houston. These are two of the best defenses in the country, so expect points to be difficult to come by across this matchup. My lean is toward the under cashing and for the high intensity conference tournament setting to bring out the best in both defenses.
But, I am backing Kansas on the points and giving the Jayhawks a chance to win outright tonight. Houston has lost each of its last four matchups against top-15 AP-ranked teams, with Kansas included in this. The Cougars defeated BYU in the previous game, but were trailing with less than 13 minutes remaining before putting forth a convincing stretch to pull ahead.
Kansas narrowly escaped an upset against TCU last night and will be eager to put forth a better effort on the floor. The Jayhawks have proven capable of matching Houston’s physicality and Peterson will be the most talented scorer on the floor. This is a matchup that feels destined to be decided in the final few possessions between two of the top teams in the sport. Don’t rule out Kansas picking up a second victory over this Houston team and capitalizing on the +5.5 point spread for the added insurance. Buckle up for some high-level hoops and expect this one to come down to the final few shots.
