The SEC tournament rolls on this afternoon with an in-state grudge match. #25 Tennessee (22-10, 11-7) has had a season filled with highs and lows. The Volunteers are looking to find some consistency, having lost three of their last five games. It’s a similar story for #22 Vanderbilt (24-7, 11-7), losers in three of its previous six contests. One thing is for certain: the Commodores are eager to battle their rivals.
Tennessee enters today as 1.5-point favorites (-105) over Vanderbilt. The total is set at 146.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Volunteers and Commodores.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
As always, the Vols are looking to gut out wins under longtime head coach Rick Barnes. UT’s 65.1 adjusted tempo is 299th out of 365 teams on KenPom. That deliberate style of play alone makes points hard to come by for opponents. Coupled with the nation’s 14th-best adjusted defensive efficiency (99.2), and it can be near-impossible. This is a deep roster as well, with several interchangeable pieces able to help off of the bench.
Tennessee has shown resilience at various points this season. Look no further than Thursday’s comeback, in which the team outscored Auburn by 17 in the second half. It’s worth noting that Ament, originally listed as questionable, played through an ankle sprain. Two straight games is far from ideal for a big man dealing with foot issues.
It’s not as if the Volunteers are inept on the other side of the floor, either. Ja’Kobi Gillespie, while inefficient, leads the way with 17.9 points per game. Down low, big man Nate Ament isn’t far behind (17.7 PPG, 6.5 REB). The biggest strength for this group comes on the glass. Tennessee leads all of college basketball with a stellar 44.8% offensive rebounding rate. That ability to extend possessions is invaluable, especially when holding onto a lead. Vanderbilt will need to make a concerted effort to box out this afternoon.
Speaking of Vandy, it’s been quite the season for Mark Byington’s crew. Granted, a 16-0 start to the season raised expectations in a major way. Since then, the Commodores have gone 8-7. Fittingly, that includes splitting two four-point games with Tennessee. Unlike the Vols, this team is all about getting buckets. Vanderbilt ranks tenth in the sport with a 125.6 adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s not to say the nation’s 28th-best adjusted defensive efficiency (99.2) is anything to sneeze at, either. Still, the underdogs are hoping to play a more energetic, high octane brand of basketball.
Unlike UT, which looks to dominate inside the paint, Vanderbilt’s biggest strength is its back court. Tyler Tanner (19.2 PPG, 5.2 AST) and Duke Miles (15.9 PPG, 4.2 AST) are one of the SEC’s premier guard duos. Down low, Tyler Nickel (13.7 PPG) is someone to watch, as well. Byington has ample weapons to use as well, with six different players on the roster averaging at least 9.0 points per game. Vandy’s offensive-minded bench will face an intriguing test against Tennessee’s defensively sound reserves.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
The Commodores aren’t great on the glass, ranking 127th in college basketball with a 50.9% total rebounding rate. In comparison, Tennessee is second (58.9%). Vandy did win the last meeting between these two in Knoxville. However, Ament didn’t take the floor and it was still a four-point game. Even without their big man, the Vols out-rebounded Vanderbilt 38-31. If the shooting remains respectable, I’ll gladly back the slight favorites on Friday.
