We have reached the knockout stage at the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
I know it’s shocking to think about after watching the Dominican Republic launch home runs all week and have the most fun you’ve ever seen on a baseball diamond, but this is already farther than the Dominicans got in 2023. There’s been a lot of talk about “redeem teams” at this year’s tournament, but so far, the DR has been the country to back up that claim.
Korea also didn’t advance to the quarterfinals three years ago, as the team never recovered from a surprising 8-7 loss to Australia in its opening contest in Pool B. Needless to say, the Koreans got their revenge on the Aussies this time around, taking a dramatic 7-2 victory back on Monday to circumnavigate all the tie-breakers and punch their ticket to Miami.
Who will move on to the semis? Let’s preview this 6:30 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Korea vs. Dominican Republic prediction, preview
Pitching is the wrinkle that constantly hangs over the World Baseball Classic. It’s difficult to have pitching depth, and even if you do, it usually comes with strings attached. We already saw how the demands of a pitcher’s MLB team can come into play in a big way, with the Rockies dictating that Italy starter Michael Lorenzen had to start on Tuesday versus the USA — not as a piggyback to Aaron Nola on Wednesday versus Mexico. That obviously ended up working out in the Italians favor, but you get my point. None of this stuff is as simple as a manger making a call.
I bring this up only to shine a light on the Dominican Republic’s decision to start Cristopher Sanchez on Friday night. Could you make the case that the man who finished second in NL Cy Young voting and led all pitchers in bWAR (8.0) might be more useful in a potential semi-final matchup with the USA and Paul Skenes? Yeah. I think you could make that case. However, we don’t the restraints that Dominican manager Albert Pujols is working under. So, as it stands, the DR will send Sanchez to the mound to face Korea, now with an 80-pitch limit instead of a 65-pitch one. That said, the left-hander actually struggled in his first appearance of the WBC against Nicaragua, throwing only 43 pitches in his 1.1 innings. I wouldn’t get my hopes up that Sanchez is suddenly going to toss six frames tonight.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is another familiar name. Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his second start of the tournament for Korea, after tossing three innings of one-run ball against Taiwan back on Saturday — in a game the Koreans would eventually lose 5-4 in extra innings. Ryu has not pitched at the MLB level since 2023 with the Blue Jays, but the soon-to-be 39-year-old did muster a 3.23 ERA across 139.1 innings in the KBO last season with the Hanwha Eagles. Ryu is a former MLB ERA champion, and twice finished top three in Cy Young Award voting. I don’t want to underestimate the southpaw. However, he’s up for a very tough task in shutting down this explosive Dominican lineup.
Through four games, the Dominican Republic is slashing .313/.458/.672 as a team with 13 home runs. Heck, in Wednesday night’s tilt against the rival Venezuelans, every bat at the top of the DR’s lineup managed a long ball. Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ketel Marte. They all went deep — and justifiably took a looooong time to admire their work. This is a batting order without any weaknesses, and it’s also one that seems to align perfectly to give a soft-tossing, left-handed starter nightmares. In 2025, Guerrero Jr. registered a 163 wRC+ versus LHPs. Geraldo Perdomo, who hits ninth (!?!) for this Dominican squad, was at a 153 wRC+ within the split. Now add in the right-handed power bats of Tatis, Julio Rodriguez, Manny Machado and Junior Caminero. Are you afraid for Ryu yet? Because I am.
Korea vs. Dominican Republic pick, best bet
Best Bet: Dominican Republic Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
It’s impossible to take the Dominicans on the moneyline at -900, so we’ll simply back this star-studded lineup. The DR scored double-digit runs in the first three games of the WBC, and then “only” mustered seven versus an MLB-quality Venezuelan pitching staff. Korea simply does not possess the kind of pitching depth needed to suppress the Dominican Rebpublic and keep this contest close. We saw Japan put up eight runs against the Koreans in pool play. Expect a similar result tonight.
