The Arizona Wildcats are the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament and are facing No. 8 UCF in their first matchup. Arizona beat UCF by eight points in their first meeting on January 17. The Wildcats have gone 11-2 since their first matchup, while UCF is 7-7 in that same span. UCF beat Cincinnati 66-65 in overtime on Wednesday to advance in the Big 12 tournament.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Arizona is a big -15.5-point favorite with the game’s over/under sitting at 160.5 points. Check out my best bet for today’s Arizona-UCF contest below.
UCF vs. Arizona (3:00 p.m. ET)
Arizona enters this tournament on a six-game winning streak with four victories over top 25 opponents in that stretch. After winning the Big 12 regular season title, the Wildcats are attempting to win the tournament as well. Brayden Burries is coming off his season high of 31 points against Colorado, which was his fourth outing with at least 28 points. He is averaging 16 points per game, but has shown he possesses upside on any given night to produce a 25-plus-point performance. Burries freshman counterpart, Koa Peat, also had a dominant performance against the Buffaloes as he totaled 25 points on 12-15 shooting from the field.
In the first Arizona vs. UCF matchup of the season, Themus Fulks went off for 30 points for the Knights. Fulks is averaging 14.1 points per game this season, and that performance against the Wildcats was a bit of an outlier. Riley Kugel is UCF’s leading scorer, averaging 14.7 points, and has scored at least 15 in his previous four contests.
This season, Arizona averages the most points per game in the Big 12, 86.7, which is five more than UCF. The biggest difference comes on defense, where UCF allows 78.4 points per game, nearly 10 more than the Wildcats allow to opponents. Arizona sits at No. 3 on KenPom, while UCF is No. 52 overall in college basketball. UCF’s defensive rating is 104th, while its offensive rating is 38th. Arizona has the third-highest ranked defensive rating with the seventh-best offensive rating in the country.
Arizona, being favored by -15.5, might seem high after only beating UCF by seven points earlier in the season, but an improved Wildcat team enters today’s contest. The Wildcats have won two of their previous three games by 16 and 23 points, both against No. 6 Iowa State and No. 14 Kansas. Since Peat returned, Arizona has started to get back to its dominant self from the first half of the season. UCF has lost three of its last four games, and although none came by 16-plus points, they were all against lesser competition.
