The Houston Rockets play for the second straight night on Wednesday, getting a really tough matchup with tired legs. They head to the Mile High City to take on fellow Western Conference contenders in the Denver Nuggets, pitting one of the NBA’s elite defenses against one of the most high-powered offenses in the league led by a multi-time MVP.
Here’s a Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s game.
Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
Houston Rockets
The Rockets found their way to the 40-win mark last night with a 113-99 victory over a tough Raptors squad. It was a much-needed win after suffering a handful of tough losses, but following it up with another won’t be easy. Now sitting 40-24, they’re back to third place in the Western Conference as the standings continue to shift by the day.
Houston sits sixth in NETRTG at +5.0 and plays at the 29th-ranked pace. The 109.9 PPG allowed to opponents is fourth-fewest around the league, and the team ranks seventh in DEFRTG as well. The Rockets are the most dominant unit on the glass with an NBA-best 48.2 rebounds a game and create plenty of extra possessions through strength on the offensive boards, also leading the league with 15.2 per contest. The offense is less impressive with 114.6 PPG, even producing the eighth-best OFFRTG in turn. Why’s that? Houston dishes out only 24.7 assists a game with the second-worst AST/TO ratio at 1.590. Sloppy basketball has become far mor common than most contenders would care for, even with the ninth-best FG% at 47.6% and seventh-best 3P% at 36.8%.
Kevin Durant averages 26.1 PPG while shooting a staggering 51.3% from the field and 40.7% from three, maintaining his elite scoring prowess. Alperen Sengun brings 20.3 points, plus a team-high 9.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists. Electric young talent Amen Thompson pitches in 17.7 points, 7.6 boards and 5.3 assists as well. The forward pairing of Jabari Smith Jr. (15.4 points, 6.8 rebounds) and Tari Eason (10.9 points, 6.2 boards) are key role players. Young guard Reed Sheppard brings 13.5 points and 3.2 assists as well, though his minutes seem to come and go depending on the matchup.
Denver Nuggets
Meanwhile, Denver sits sixth in the Western Conference at 39-26 overall. The Nuggets have dropped a pair of consecutive contests and suddenly look somewhat vulnerable at 3-4 since the All-Star break, and the return of Aaron Gordon hasn’t yet been the fix to the team’s problems though he just came back from injury two games ago.
The Nuggets’ NETRTG of +3.7 falls 10th on the campaign and the team sits 22nd in pace. The offense is clearly elite, averaging 120.3 PPG (third-most) with the best OFFRTG of any NBA franchise. They do nearly everything well on that side of the ball, posting 28.0 assists with the league’s best AST/TO ratio at 2.158 as well. Denver has some of the top shooting splits at second in FG% (49.2%) and first in 3P% (39.0%), also getting to the free-throw line fourth-most of any team. Despite the strengths of the offense, the Nuggets lag behind on the other end of the court by giving up 116.6 PPG and coming in at 23rd in DEFRTG. They’re also just 19th in rebounding with 43.2 per contest.
Multi-time MVP Nikola Jokic continues to dominate with 28.9 points a night along with a league-leading 12.5 rebounds and 10.3 assists. Jamal Murray is probable tonight and averages 25.4 points with 7.2 assists, knocking down 42.7% of his threes. Aaron Gordon posts 17.3 points and 6.2 rebounds across his limited sample of healthy games. Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Braun and Cam Johnson all score double-digit points as well, though the latter is probable as well. Peyton Watson is the most notable absence this evening, averaging 14.9 PPG but sitting out due to injury.
Rockets vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as -6.5 home favorites tonight with -278 odds on the Moneyline. The Rockets are listed at +225 on the ML with the game total set at 230.5 combined points.
These teams have squared off three times this season. Denver took the first two 112-109 and 128-125, but Houston bounced back with a 115-101 win in the most recent matchup. These all came in November and December though, so while the lineups are largely the same, these teams are in different positions than before.
The Rockets’ offense has slowed down somewhat considerably, so the hope for them tonight is that they can decrease the tempo to a slow pace and grind out a tough win. They’re just 17-17 ATS on the road and 29-35 ATS overall this season, plus they’re 5-5 ATS with no rest like tonight. There should be some tired legs at altitude and the track record suggests something of a toss-up as to whether they cover, but I’m surprisingly less discouraged than many bettors probably will be.
The Nuggets look vulnerable right now, dropping three of their five games in March so far with just 108 and 103 points in two losses to the Timberwolves and Knicks. They scored 126 in a loss to the Thunder, but that matchup came by a three-point margin and they’ve won just one of these last five contests by a margin greater than tonight’s line of 6.5 points. Even the Jazz managed to keep a game against Denver within three points.
It’s a tough sell, but the Nuggets aren’t their usual selves right now and the Rockets are a significantly better defensive team. After two of the last three matchups between these roster were decided by fewer than seven points, I like Houston to cover tonight even given the circumstances.
Top pick: HOU Rockets +6.5 (-105)
